Galaxy Research has lowered its estimated chances of the Clarity Act passing in 2026 to 50%, down from 60% earlier this month, citing mounting delays in the Senate rather than any change to the bill itself.
Senate timing pressures weigh on outlook
The revision reflects a tightening legislative window as the Senate calendar grows more crowded. Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, said the shift is driven by scheduling constraints, noting that no floor date or motion to proceed has been set. That leaves less time for debate and approval before attention shifts to competing priorities.
Earlier in June, the estimate had already been reduced to 60%, but conditions worsened after Donald Trump tied his approval of a housing bill to the passage of the SAVE Act. That move has added congestion in Congress, limiting available time for the крипто market structure proposal.
Legislative steps still pending
The Clarity Act still faces multiple procedural hurdles. A combined draft from the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees has yet to be finalized. After that, the bill must secure a motion to proceed and move through a full amendment process before reaching the House.
Thorn said that if Senate Majority Leader Thune does not schedule floor time by early July, consideration could slip to September. That would place debate closer to midterm election pressures, which historically slow progress on complex financial legislation.
Bill remains on agenda despite uncertainty
Despite the tighter timeline, the measure remains on the Senate’s July agenda. A congressional aide said bipartisan groups are preparing to advance the bill once lawmakers return.
The Clarity Act would assign primary oversight of most cryptocurrency assets to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, while leaving the Securities and Exchange Commission in charge of specific areas. Traders continue to monitor its progress closely, as it could reshape how US crypto markets are regulated.
For deeper context on U.S. crypto policy shifts like the Clarity Act, explore our insights in this US regulation outlook.
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