Clarity Act faces delays ahead of midterm elections
The Clarity Act, a bill aimed at establishing a comprehensive framework for cryptocurrency market structure, is unlikely to pass before the November midterm elections, according to TD Cowen. Political disagreements and procedural hurdles continue to slow progress as lawmakers prepare to take up the measure in mid-July.
The Senate is expected to begin formal consideration during the week of July 13, with Majority Leader Thune initiating steps that could bring the bill to a floor vote later in the month. However, a key deadline looms on July 24, just before the House recess, narrowing the window for approval.
Political tensions cloud legislative outlook
Uncertainty around President Donald Trump’s stance on new legislation has added to Republican caution. His recent refusal to sign a housing bill, along with statements tying future approvals to the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, has complicated efforts to advance the Clarity Act.
At the same time, Democrats are pushing for stricter ethics provisions that would bar government officials and their families from owning or participating in crypto-related operations. These measures, which would also apply to the president, face resistance from several Republican senators whose votes could prove decisive.
Regulatory disputes and industry opposition persist
Law enforcement agencies have raised objections to provisions within the bill, particularly section 604, known as the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act. Officials argue that exempting software developers from certain liabilities could weaken oversight and hinder efforts to combat illicit activity.
Banking institutions are also pushing back, especially over rules tied to stablecoin yield products. TD Cowen expects little change to these provisions, signaling continued resistance from the financial sector as the bill moves forward.
Market uncertainty deepens amid legislative gridlock
The lack of regulatory clarity is feeding volatility across digital asset markets. Bitcoin has seen a sharp shift, with more than half of its circulating supply now sitting in unrealized loss, up significantly from the previous month.
Traders have also pulled nearly $3 billion from Bitcoin ETFs خلال a recent 10-day stretch, while the market’s Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 23, reflecting heightened caution.
Stablecoin debate adds pressure
Stablecoins remain a major sticking point in negotiations, with the market reaching a capitalization of around $320 billion. The Independent Community Bankers of America, representing roughly 4,000 local lenders, has warned that proposed rules could redirect $1.3 trillion in deposits and reduce lending capacity for small businesses and agriculture by $850 billion.
This pushback from traditional finance adds another layer of complexity to already fragile bipartisan negotiations.
Outlook dims as analysts lower expectations
Analysts are increasingly skeptical about the bill’s chances. Galaxy Research has cut its probability of passage in 2026 to 50%, down from 60% earlier in the month. JPMorgan places the likelihood even lower, citing a limited legislative calendar and unresolved policy disputes.
Meanwhile, federal agencies are moving ahead independently. The Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued a joint interpretation in March 2026, classifying several major tokens as digital commodities under the CFTC’s oversight. While this provides some guidance, a comprehensive regulatory framework remains out of reach as Congress struggles to reach consensus.
As US crypto rules stall, explore how regulation shapes adoption in this detailed outlook on future market structure.
Disclaimer: The content on this page is provided for general informational purposes only and does not represent the views or financial advice of Toobit. We make no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of this information and shall not be held liable for any errors, omissions, or outcomes resulting from its use. Investing in digital assets involves risk; users should independently evaluate their financial situation and the risks involved. For further details, please consult our Terms of Service and Risk Disclosure.
