Bitcoin and ethereum staged a modest rebound after a sharp weekly selloff, but markets remain under pressure as traders focus on the critical 60,000-dollar level and upcoming U.S. monetary policy signals.
Bitcoin fell from 73,396 dollars to as low as 61,351 dollars, its weakest point since February, before recovering slightly. Ethereum dropped more steeply, losing 16 percent to around 1,683 dollars, then rebounding alongside bitcoin, with futures rising 2.75 percent and 5.71 percent respectively over 24 hours.
60,000 dollars emerges as key support
Market positioning shows 60,000 dollars has become the defining level for bitcoin’s near-term direction. Around 19,000 open option contracts are clustered at that price, reinforcing it as a major support zone.
Institutional traders have increasingly sold put options near this level, signaling early signs of bottom formation after weeks of defensive positioning. Activity suggests a strategic shift toward accumulation rather than outright hedging.
MicroStrategy sale and ETF outflows weigh on sentiment
Market sentiment weakened after MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, sold 32 bitcoin worth about 2.5 million dollars at an average price of 77,135 dollars—its first sale in over two years. While the transaction accounted for just 0.004 percent of its 843,706 bitcoin holdings, it triggered broader selling, with whale and retail flows totaling roughly 25,000 bitcoin خلال the week.
The decline pushed the company’s holdings below its average cost basis of 75,699 dollars, adding psychological pressure. At the same time, spot bitcoin ETFs recorded 13 consecutive trading days of outflows totaling 4.4 billion dollars.
Assets under management across ETFs dropped from 104.29 billion to 82.83 billion dollars. BlackRock accounted for roughly 3.3 billion dollars of those outflows, or 75 percent, followed by Fidelity and Grayscale. A small inflow of 3.05 million dollars briefly interrupted the trend but did not reverse it.
Macro and external pressures intensify
Beyond fund flows, several external factors added strain. Movements from Mt. Gox-linked wallets revived fears of potential large-scale selling. Meanwhile, persistent inflation and rising U.S. Treasury yields dampened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
A stronger U.S. dollar and renewed geopolitical tension in the Middle East further pressured digital assets, even as U.S. technology stocks continued to reach record highs.
Volatility rises as options signal caution
Options markets reflected a sharp shift in sentiment. Bitcoin’s one-month implied volatility rose to 47.47 percent, while ethereum’s jumped to 64.38 percent. Intraday volatility indices peaked before easing, suggesting a possible short-term top in volatility.
Short-term skew turned deeply negative, with bitcoin at minus 17.96 and ethereum at minus 19.58, indicating strong demand for downside protection. However, longer-dated contracts flipped positive, pointing to expectations of improved stability over the next three to six months.
Institutional derivatives activity also shifted. Put selling rose to 42 percent of trades and call buying to 33 percent, while put buying dropped to 17.3 percent. This reflects reduced hedging and more structured positioning around the 60,000-dollar level.
Ethereum shows deeper weakness
Ethereum continues to underperform bitcoin. Its futures curve moved from a 6.52 percent premium to a 9.49 percent discount, signaling heavier selling pressure. ETH/BTC volatility climbed to 1.356, the highest in the current cycle.
ETF demand tied to ethereum has also remained weak, with four consecutive weeks of net outflows. Market sentiment around the asset has fallen into extreme fear territory.
Fed policy and inflation data in focus
Attention has now shifted to macroeconomic catalysts. A softer-than-expected U.S. Consumer Price Index reading for May briefly lifted sentiment but failed to sustain momentum.
Focus is now on the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where traders are looking for signals on interest rate policy. Strong recent employment data has complicated the outlook, and a survey of economists shows most expect rates to remain unchanged through 2026.
ETF outflows have resumed on a smaller scale, with 77.44 million dollars withdrawn on June 9, marking a third consecutive day of declines and reflecting continued caution.
Outlook hinges on single pivot level
Two scenarios dominate market expectations. Holding above 60,000 dollars could support stabilization, backed by options positioning and slowing ETF outflows. A confirmed break below that level, however, could trigger a cascade toward 55,000 or even 50,000 dollars, where additional option interest is concentrated.
Long-term holders have largely refrained from selling, providing a base layer of support, but their lack of accumulation signals hesitation.
For now, market direction remains tightly anchored to the 60,000-dollar threshold, with volatility, macro data, and policy signals likely to determine bitcoin’s next decisive move.
For deeper context on this volatility, explore our breakdown in this analysis of Bitcoin’s recent crash.
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