Bitcoin’s latest price advance is encountering mounting selling pressure on the blockchain, with on-chain data signaling growing profit-taking risk around a critical resistance zone, according to CryptoQuant research head Julio Moreno on Wednesday.
Key levels: resistance at $76,800, support near $67,600
Bitcoin has pulled back slightly and is now hovering around an on-chain “realized price” level near $76,800. Moreno described this zone as a major resistance area, where many holders who are close to breaking even typically look to sell.
He noted that a similar price band previously halted Bitcoin’s recovery during the January 2026 bear-market rebound, before the market reversed lower. If current selling momentum continues, Moreno said the next significant support could form near $67,600, marking a potential downside target if buyers fail to absorb supply.
On-chain metrics suggest the market is trading close to a psychologically important cost basis, where buying and selling pressures tend to converge. A failure of demand at this level could open the way for a deeper pullback toward the $67,600 area before a clearer trend emerges.
Large transactions surge, signaling increased selling from big accounts
The CryptoQuant report highlighted a sharp shift in transaction structure on the network. The share of large transactions has climbed from below 10 percent to more than 40 percent of total volume.
Historically, this kind of jump has been associated with heavier short-term selling pressure from large accounts, as they move to lock in gains after strong price rallies.
Complementing this, on-chain flows show a pronounced increase in Bitcoin moving to exchange wallets. Hourly inflows recently touched roughly 11,000 BTC, the highest level since late December 2025. Such spikes are often interpreted as a precursor to selling, as exchanges are the primary venues for converting holdings into cash or stablecoins.
Realized profits rising, but below peak selloff levels
Daily realized profits are currently estimated at around $500 million, according to CryptoQuant’s data. That figure remains below the $1 billion per day zone that has often aligned with major local tops and intense selloffs in prior cycles.
Moreno indicated that if Bitcoin holds above $76,000 and continues to edge closer to the $76,800 resistance, realized profits could accelerate beyond the $1 billion daily mark. A move into that range would increase the likelihood of heavier distribution, raising the chances of a short-term market top or corrective phase.
Tight supply backdrop clashes with near-term selling pressure
Despite the uptick in coins flowing to exchanges, the broader trend in exchange balances continues to point downward. Overall supply held on trading platforms has fallen to a multi-year low, suggesting a structural preference among many participants to hold rather than trade.
This creates a tense setup: immediate selling pressure from large accounts is rising at the same time that the liquid supply on exchanges is shrinking. In such an environment, relatively modest increases in sell orders or declines in demand can have an outsized impact on price, particularly around key resistance levels.
Derivatives market shows leveraged bullish positioning and liquidation risk
Derivatives data reflect this tension. Open interest across futures and other leveraged products remains near historical highs, indicating substantial capital committed to directional bets.
Funding rates have recently turned positive, showing that traders are paying a premium to maintain long positions. This shift points to renewed short-term bullishness and a market skewed toward expectations of further upside.
However, the combination of elevated open interest and positive funding makes the market more fragile. If prices were to move sharply lower from current levels, heavily leveraged long positions could face forced liquidations. Such cascades can accelerate downward moves, turning a routine correction into a rapid, destabilizing selloff.
Outlook: inflection zone as profit-taking and demand collide
Overall, on-chain and derivatives signals place Bitcoin near a potential inflection point. Resistance around $76,800, rising realized profits, and heavier activity from large holders argue for elevated profit-taking risk in the short term.
If demand can absorb this supply and price breaks decisively above the current resistance band, the rally could extend. If not, the market may first need to reset, with $67,600 emerging as a potential downside support area before a more durable trend resumes.
Want deeper insight into BTC’s next move? Explore proven strategies in Bitcoin trading strategies for success in 2025.
Disclaimer: The content on this page is provided for general informational purposes only and does not represent the views or financial advice of Toobit. We make no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of this information and shall not be held liable for any errors, omissions, or outcomes resulting from its use. Investing in digital assets involves risk; users should independently evaluate their financial situation and the risks involved. For further details, please consult our terms of service and risk disclosure.
