Bitcoin may be approaching a potential price floor around $53,600, according to CryptoQuant data, but weak demand is limiting the chances of a near-term rebound. The level reflects the cryptocurrency’s realized price, or the average cost basis of all holders, which has historically acted as a benchmark for market bottoms.
Head of research Julio Moreno said Bitcoin has often reached or briefly fallen below this level at the end of major downturns. During the November 2022 selloff, the realized price was momentarily breached before the market recovered, reinforcing its importance as a valuation threshold.
Price movement stalls above realized price
Bitcoin recently dropped to about $59,000, roughly 9% above its realized price, before rebounding to around $62,150. The move comes amid subdued market activity and fading speculative interest.
CryptoQuant reported that combined spot and futures demand fell by about 652,000 Bitcoin last week, the steepest weekly decline since January 2022. As prices slipped below $60,000, forced liquidations of leveraged positions added to selling pressure.
Demand indicators signal weakening market
Longer-term demand trends have also deteriorated. One-year apparent demand growth has dropped below its moving average at the fastest pace since February 2024, suggesting fewer participants are entering the market compared to a year ago.
Flows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have also turned negative. Thirty-day demand growth fell to minus 74,000 Bitcoin, the lowest level since these products launched in January 2024, pointing to reduced inflows and an expanding net supply. Institutionally oriented products recorded $77.44 million in net outflows on June 9, marking a third consecutive day of withdrawals.
Losses rise but capitulation remains limited
Despite the pullback, realized losses remain well below levels seen in prior bear markets. About 187,000 Bitcoin in losses were recorded over the past 30 days, compared with 400,000 in February 2026 and 1.2 million during the November 2022 collapse.
This suggests that while pressure is building, widespread capitulation has not yet occurred. Many holders still retain unrealized gains at current levels near $59,000, reducing the urgency to sell.
On-chain data points to stress and ownership shift
On-chain metrics show growing strain across the market. The share of total supply held in profit has fallen toward 45%, a zone historically linked to deep corrections and potential floor formation. When a majority of supply is near breakeven or at a loss, selling pressure from profit-taking typically declines.
At the same time, transaction volumes are nearing record highs even as prices fall, indicating a transfer of ownership. Short-term traders have been hit hardest, moving more than 59,000 Bitcoin to exchanges at a loss within a 24-hour period, the largest such event since February.
Undervaluation signals emerge, but bottom unconfirmed
The market price remains above the network’s average cost basis near $54,000, providing a cushion that has prevented deeper, system-wide losses. While newer entrants face mounting pressure, the broader market has not yet reached the extreme conditions that typically define final bottoms.
Analysis from Grayscale suggests Bitcoin is now undervalued relative to its long-term average, but not to the extent seen at previous cycle lows. The near-term outlook may hinge on the behavior of large leveraged traders and whether demand stabilizes.
Outlook depends on demand recovery
Analysts are watching for a reversal in declining demand and a stabilization in ETF outflows as signs of a potential recovery. While current sentiment reflects heightened fear, historically a precursor to market bottoms, the process of establishing a durable floor could take weeks or months.
Moreno said that although Bitcoin may be trading near a valuation floor, a confirmed bottom will likely require stronger demand, a reversal in fund flows, and signs of exhaustion in realized losses. Until then, current price levels remain tentative rather than definitive.
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