Bitcoin’s sharp sell-off may be approaching a market bottom as leverage is flushed from the system and exchange-traded fund flows stabilize, according to a new note from Standard Chartered.
Prices under pressure, but signs of stabilization
Bitcoin traded near $62,960 in early June, down 5.6% on the day, 14% over the week, 22% over the past month and more than 40% year-over-year. Ether changed hands around $1,755, a 6.5% daily drop and a 26% slide for the month.
Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, said recent price action looks severe but argues underlying conditions are firmer than the headline moves suggest. He pointed to relatively steady spot bitcoin ETF holdings and the prospect of renewed corporate buying as reasons to expect stabilization.
Spot bitcoin ETF holdings are hovering near 674,000 BTC and have “stayed largely unchanged” in recent months, Kendrick wrote, countering earlier fears of large-scale redemptions and signaling what he described as a more resilient base of ownership.
Leverage washed out after heavy liquidations
The latest downswing has been accompanied by a wave of forced selling in derivatives markets. Around $1.5 billion in bitcoin futures positions were liquidated this week, a tally similar to major washouts seen in late January and early February.
Kendrick said approximately $1.545 billion of more recent liquidations came from long positions, suggesting much of the speculative excess has been cleared. That deleveraging, he argued, creates a cleaner backdrop for any eventual recovery, even if bitcoin briefly dips below $60,000 from here.
Corporate flows seen as key signal
Market attention is also focused on corporate balance sheet activity, which has historically influenced sentiment.
This week’s volatility followed Strategy’s sale of 32 BTC, a relatively small move but notable because it funded preferred-stock distributions and contrasted with the firm’s typical accumulation pattern. In a similar episode in 2022, Strategy sold 704 BTC and then bought back 810 BTC two days later.
Based on that history, Kendrick said the next step could be either a modest repurchase of roughly 320 BTC or a larger move of up to 3,200 BTC, with either scenario potentially affecting short-term market tone.
ETF flows contrast with previous fears
While some recent sessions have seen outflows from U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, Standard Chartered’s analysis emphasizes the absence of a persistent, large-scale exodus.
Kendrick contrasted the roughly stable 674,000 BTC currently held in spot products with earlier concerns that aggressive profit-taking could accelerate once prices turned lower. Instead, he said the data point to a more committed group of ETF holders than in past cycles.
To summarize the current backdrop:
- Bitcoin and ether have posted double-digit monthly losses, but spot bitcoin ETF holdings remain broadly unchanged near 674,000 BTC while futures markets have undergone a major liquidation of leveraged long positions.
Ether mirrors bitcoin stress but keeps long-term case
Ether has faced similar selling pressure, falling below $1,800 for the first time since early February amid broad risk-off sentiment and muted demand for higher-risk assets. The token has also seen ETF outflows and a difficult macro backdrop, with some analysts now projecting a June trading range of about $1,750 to $2,461.
Kendrick likened ether’s current behavior to technology stocks in the early 2000s, arguing that, as with the dot-com era, prices may remain volatile even as underlying network activity and development continue to build long-term value. In his view, ecosystem growth and adoption remain the core drivers for any eventual recovery.
Long-term targets unchanged despite volatility
Despite the recent drawdown and ongoing uncertainty, Standard Chartered has kept its year-end targets unchanged: $100,000 for bitcoin and $4,000 for ether.
Kendrick wrote that the combination of ETF stability, significant derivatives deleveraging and the potential for renewed corporate buying supports the case that the market is closer to a bottom than the headline price declines suggest, even if further near-term downside cannot be ruled out.
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