Bitcoin held near $65,000 after softer-than-expected U.S. inflation and growth data tempered the immediate impact of a hawkish Federal Reserve meeting, even as technology stocks, oil and crypto market liquidity pointed to a cautious trading environment.
The largest cryptocurrency stayed above $64,500 on Thursday after the Federal Open Market Committee left its benchmark interest-rate range unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%. The decision passed on a 9-3 vote, with three policymakers supporting a quarter-point increase.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh stressed after the meeting that the central bank had “no soft inflation target,” adding that holding rates steady should not be read as reluctance to tighten policy again. That message initially kept pressure on risk-sensitive markets, but Thursday’s economic releases gave traders a reason to reassess the likelihood of another near-term increase.
Core personal consumption expenditures, the Fed’s preferred underlying inflation measure, rose 0.1% in June, below the 0.2% consensus estimate, according to U.S. government data. Second-quarter gross domestic product expanded at a 1.5% annualized pace, below a 2.1% forecast, while initial jobless claims rose to 197,000.
Together, the figures suggested an economy losing some momentum without a fresh acceleration in underlying price pressure. That combination can make a further rate increase harder to justify, though the Fed’s stance leaves markets exposed to future inflation surprises, particularly if energy prices remain elevated.
Risk assets remain under pressure
Bitcoin’s resilience stood out against a weak week for the technology trade. Oil hovered near $92 a barrel, the Nasdaq 100 remained in correction territory, and a semiconductor index had fallen more than 14% over five trading sessions.
Iliya Kalchev said Bitcoin had stayed relatively stable through the Fed’s statement and Warsh’s press conference, then moved modestly higher after the U.S. data. The divergence came as the artificial-intelligence-linked semiconductor trade, which had benefited from expectations of lower funding costs, continued to weaken.
Kalchev said Bitcoin had moved broadly in step with semiconductor shares for much of July. That relationship has loosened amid renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, which have raised the prospect of higher energy costs and revived concerns over inflation. Bitcoin’s comparatively narrow range may also reflect lighter summer market participation, a condition that can suppress routine price swings while leaving markets more vulnerable to abrupt moves on major news.
Major tokens showed a mixed but generally stable picture. Ether rose back above $1,900, XRP traded around $1.07, Solana changed hands near $74, and BNB held close to $572. XRP had declined 6% over the preceding seven sessions, while Solana was down 5%, showing that Bitcoin’s steadiness had not translated into a broad recovery across large-cap crypto assets.
Futures pricing signals weak demand for leverage
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode said U.S. Treasury yields have exceeded the annualized return available from Bitcoin’s three-month futures basis for only the second extended period on record. The basis trade, often called cash-and-carry, involves buying Bitcoin in the spot market and selling a higher-priced futures contract to capture the gap between the two.
When short-dated Treasuries offer a better yield than that trade, professional capital has less incentive to commit funds to Bitcoin futures positions. Glassnode said the previous extended period in which Treasuries out-yielded the three-month basis ended around the 2022 cycle low, though historical similarity alone does not establish a repeat outcome.
The firm also reported that spot volume measured in Bitcoin had declined to its lowest level since 2019. Exchange flows were thinner and order books showed fewer sell orders, according to Glassnode, conditions that can reduce trading activity but also make prices more sensitive when large orders enter the market.
Glassnode’s Bitcoin Vector indicator was at “risk off,” one band above capitulation. It described the current decline as the shallowest bear market on record so far by price depth, while noting that its duration had not yet matched previous cycle downturns.
K33 reported that July was tracking as Bitcoin’s weakest month for spot trading volume since November 2023, with average daily spot volume around $2.2 billion. CME Bitcoin open interest was also near its lowest level since 2023, K33 said, reinforcing the picture of reduced appetite for derivatives exposure.
Etf flows turn positive after four days of withdrawals
U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded net inflows of $32 million on Wednesday, according to SoSoValue, ending four straight sessions of net outflows. The rebound was modest relative to the large daily swings ETFs can experience, but it interrupted a run of withdrawals during a period of falling activity in spot and futures markets.
Spot Ether ETFs moved in the other direction, posting $18.6 million in net outflows on Wednesday, SoSoValue reported. The split suggests demand remained selective rather than signaling a synchronized return to crypto fund buying.
Attention also shifted to Strategy’s earnings release after the market close. The company sold Bitcoin earlier this year, its first sale in nearly four years, and made no purchases during the four weeks before its results. Any indication that Strategy plans further sales, pauses acquisitions, or resumes purchases would offer a fresh read on how one of Bitcoin’s largest corporate holders is managing liquidity and balance-sheet risk.
For now, Bitcoin’s position near $65,000 reflects a market caught between easing signs in U.S. economic data and a Federal Reserve unwilling to declare the inflation fight complete. Thin spot volumes, subdued futures positioning and restrained ETF flows leave the next sustained move likely to depend on whether macroeconomic data or energy-driven inflation fears take control of the rate outlook.
Wondering what’s next for BTC after the Fed decision? Explore key levels in this detailed resistance-level breakdown.
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