BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has sold all major cryptocurrency holdings, warning that rising energy costs, geopolitical tensions, and shifting U.S. political attitudes toward artificial intelligence could weigh on digital assets. He said bitcoin may remain below $100,000 through 2026 as liquidity continues to concentrate in the AI sector.
Speaking on June 10, Hayes confirmed he liquidated positions in HYPE, NEAR, Worldcoin, and Zcash, reallocating capital to U.S. Treasury securities and energy companies. He described the move as defensive, aimed at navigating tightening financial conditions and inflation risks linked to the ongoing Iran conflict.
Hayes exits crypto amid macro concerns
Hayes’ decision to exit major cryptocurrencies underscores his concerns about the macroeconomic environment. He believes structural shifts in global liquidity, driven by energy prices and AI-related investment, may cap upside potential for digital assets over the next several years.
By moving into U.S. Treasuries and energy equities, Hayes is prioritizing capital preservation and income generation, positioning his portfolio for a period of sustained volatility and potential inflationary pressures.
Oil prices and inflation fears take center stage
Hayes pointed to surging oil prices as a key driver of inflationary pressure. West Texas Intermediate crude has climbed 8 percent in recent weeks to around $112.50 per barrel, raising transportation and manufacturing costs globally.
He argued that elevated energy prices could intensify inflation ahead of the November midterm elections, placing political pressure on President Donald Trump’s administration. In response, Hayes suggested Trump may adopt a more critical stance toward AI, potentially introducing taxes or regulatory measures to curb the sector’s expansion.
Public sentiment appears to be shifting in that direction. A recent Gallup poll found that 71 percent of Americans oppose new AI data centers in their communities, citing concerns over energy consumption and economic disruption.
Liquidity shift toward AI weighs on crypto
According to Hayes, approximately $800 billion has been deployed into AI infrastructure and development in 2026, with growth expected to slow by 2027. He estimates that between late 2022 and 2026, around $1.5 trillion in AI-related debt issuance matched the expansion of the U.S. M2 money supply.
That dynamic, he said, has redirected liquidity away from cryptocurrencies, contributing to their relative underperformance against AI-linked equities. Hayes warned that when the AI-driven expansion slows or reverses, markets could see correlations converge, triggering simultaneous declines across asset classes.
SpaceX IPO seen as key market test
Hayes also flagged risks surrounding high-valuation technology listings, particularly SpaceX’s public debut. The company’s valuation, which approached $2.1 trillion at peak levels, combined with a limited float of 4 to 5 percent, raises concerns about market liquidity.
After an initial surge, SpaceX shares have fallen roughly 6 percent from their highs, signaling hesitation among traders. Hayes warned that continued weakness could undermine confidence in the broader AI narrative and weigh on upcoming offerings from firms such as OpenAI and Anthropic.
Bond market signals tighter conditions ahead
Further pressure is coming from the bond market. Two-year U.S. Treasury yields are hovering near 5.92 percent, about 57 to 60 basis points above the Federal Reserve’s target rate. Hayes said this spread indicates expectations of tighter monetary policy rather than easing.
Higher borrowing costs typically challenge leveraged growth sectors, particularly technology and AI, and can accelerate asset repricing across markets.
Outlook: volatility persists, re-entry possible
Hayes expects continued volatility across risk assets in the near term. He said cryptocurrencies are unlikely to outperform unless monetary expansion resumes and is not absorbed by AI-related spending.
He added that he may return to the crypto market later this year if key conditions improve, including stabilizing oil prices, softer political rhetoric toward AI, and better liquidity conditions. Until then, his strategy remains focused on government debt and energy equities as protection against inflation and tightening financial policy.
The broader takeaway, according to Hayes, is a shift away from growth-driven narratives toward capital preservation, as multiple macroeconomic pressures converge on global markets.
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