Americans routed billions of dollars into offshore prediction markets last year despite U.S. restrictions, underscoring persistent demand for these platforms and the limits of enforcement in decentralized systems, according to a new report by consulting firm Crane Zeng.
The study estimates that between $11 billion and $34 billion in wagers came from U.S. users on platforms officially barred from operating in the country, representing roughly 12.5% to 31.5% of total U.S. prediction market activity.
Offshore activity driven by blockchain platforms
Crane Zeng said a single blockchain-based operator accounted for between $11 billion and $27 billion of offshore volume, with around 30% of its trading activity linked to U.S. users based on on-chain data. Total offshore prediction market trading reached about $65 billion in 2025.
Most of this activity flows through decentralized platforms such as Polymarket, Opinion, and Predict, where users transact through cryptocurrency wallets without identity verification. These systems allow traders to bypass geographic restrictions and participate anonymously.
Regulatory pressure meets shifting market structure
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission continues to prohibit unregistered offshore prediction markets while taking a more permissive stance toward domestic platforms. Over the past 12 months, regulated U.S. venues processed $74 billion in trading volume, with one exchange contributing $70 billion of that total.
Even so, enforcement has not fully curbed offshore participation. The report suggests that cross-border activity remains deeply embedded in the crypto ecosystem, as users continue to find ways around access controls.
Offshore dominance declines as US market grows
Globally, offshore platforms accounted for 84.4% of prediction market trading in 2024, falling to 60.9% in 2025 as the U.S. sector expanded. The offshore share declined further to 54% as domestic platforms gained traction.
Crane Zeng projects that if current growth trends persist, U.S.-linked trading on unlicensed offshore platforms could reach $133 billion annually by 2030.
Rapid growth and rising retail participation
Separate data highlighted in the report shows global monthly trading volumes on leading platforms surged from under $5 billion in September 2025 to about $24 billion by April 2026. Much of this growth has been driven by retail traders placing smaller wagers, reflecting broader adoption of event-based financial contracts tied to politics, economics, and sports.
Because these platforms operate on public blockchains, transaction flows and wallet activity can be tracked in real time, giving traders visibility into positioning and market sentiment that is not available in traditional financial systems.
Regulatory outlook may reshape market offerings
Attention is now turning to a new rule proposed by the U.S. derivatives regulator on June 10, which seeks to define which types of prediction contracts are allowed. The proposal would prohibit contracts tied to events such as war, terrorism, and assassinations, while potentially allowing a wider range of sports-related products.
The agency is also asserting broader authority to review and reject contracts deemed against the public interest, introducing uncertainty for both domestic and offshore platforms. As regulators draw a sharper line between financial use cases and gaming activity, traders may face shifting availability of markets in the months ahead.
Curious how regulated crypto venues work? Explore compliant prediction markets on centralized exchanges instead.
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