Is BTC $100,000 just around the corner?

The raging market has finally allowed investors to breathe a sigh of relief. Since the conclusion of the U.S. presidential election, the market's FOMO sentiment has intensified, with BTC achieving a rare consecutive rise on the daily chart. BTC surged from a bottom range of around $66,000, breaking through $70,000, and at the beginning of November, it once again broke through $80,000. After continuously overcoming significant resistance levels, BTC is now approaching $94,000.

Ethereum, which had previously been subjected to intense FUD, also followed Bitcoin, achieving a 7-day consecutive rise on the daily chart, climbing from a bottom of $2,400 to nearly $3,400. According to Coingecko data, Ethereum's market capitalization has risen to approximately $400 billion, ranking 32nd in global asset market capitalization. After breaking through $230, SOL's market capitalization briefly exceeded $100 billion.

Altcoins have also experienced significant surges, including Meme, AI, public chain, and ecosystem projects. This market rally is quite strong and what are the reasons behind it? Take a look with analysts from Toobit.

Last week, Michael Saylor stated that MicroStrategy has increased its holdings by approximately $2 billion, acquiring 27,200 BTC at an average cost of around $74,000. As of November, MicroStrategy holds a total of 279,420 Bitcoins, with a total value of $11.9 billion.

The market generally agrees that a new bull market has already begun. As a highly influential figure, Michael Saylor's bold purchases undoubtedly represent optimism for the future market. As of this writing, MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings have achieved an astonishing unrealized profit of $13 billion.

According to data disclosed, the global Bitcoin ETF holdings have exceeded 1.2 million BTC, accounting for 5.7% of the total supply. The top five include BlackRock IBIT, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, Fidelity, CoinShares and ARK 21Shares. In terms of specific data for Bitcoin spot ETFs, there have been significant net inflows in the weeks following early October.

According to the latest data, the U.S. government is estimated to hold over 200,000 Bitcoins, and Trump stated at the Bitcoin conference in July that if elected in November, he would fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, preventing the U.S. from selling its held Bitcoins, and establishing a "strategic Bitcoin reserve."

It is well known that the current SEC has been criticized and questioned by industry entrepreneurs and investors for its harsh stance on the crypto industry. If Trump indeed fires and replaces the current officials, it would undoubtedly be a significant positive for the industry.

Trump will officially take office as president on January 20 next year. Recently, The Washington Post reported that Trump is looking for key candidates who are friendly to the crypto industry, and his senior advisors are consulting crypto executives on potential changes to federal policy. Initial discussions have focused on a range of financial regulatory agencies, including the SEC.

According to five insiders, Trump's advisors are considering appointing current regulators, former federal officials, and financial industry executives to important leadership positions, many of whom have publicly expressed support for cryptocurrencies. The discussion process is still in its early stages, and the candidate list is still changing.

On Polymarket, which has gained fame due to the U.S. presidential election, bets regarding whether Bitcoin can break through $100,000 this year have begun to heat up. Current data shows that the market predicts a 54% probability of reaching $100,000, with a daily probability increase of 18%.

 

 

However, it is worth noting that this predictive data is dynamically adjusted, and the values may fluctuate significantly with Bitcoin's price movements. The market is often filled with confidence during significant rises and falls into despair during major declines. As shown in the chart, in September and October of this year, the probability of Bitcoin rising above $100,000 did not exceed 20%.

As the market expects Trump to shift U.S. regulatory policies to a more crypto-friendly environment, the bullish momentum seems unstoppable. With his inauguration set for January 2025, probably the market has a few weeks to maintain this trend. We have truly entered an unknown territory.