Washington is nearing an agreement with Tehran that could formally end nearly seven weeks of confrontation, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday, signaling a potential turning point for global energy prices and risk assets.
Trump: Nuclear curbs agreed, deal may be “soon”
Speaking outside the White House, Trump said the United States and Iran had made “progress” and were “closer to ending hostilities.”
He said Iran had agreed to measures that would prevent it from developing nuclear weapons and had consented to return what he described as “nuclear dust.” According to Trump, Tehran had accepted nearly all the points under discussion in current talks.
The president said much of the groundwork for a ceasefire had already been completed and suggested that a formal agreement could come soon. He warned that if a deal is not reached, fighting would resume immediately.
Trump added that Iran was now prepared to accept steps it had previously rejected. He said he did not yet know whether the current ceasefire would need to be extended.
When asked where a deal might be signed, Trump said Islamabad was a possible venue and noted he might travel to China afterward.
Potential impact on oil and energy prices
A diplomatic breakthrough would directly affect energy markets, which have been on edge throughout the conflict.
Brent crude recently traded as high as $101.70 per barrel after earlier rounds of talks failed, reflecting fears of prolonged supply disruption. Hopes for a resolution have already pushed prices back below $91 per barrel.
A formal agreement is expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for about 20% of the world’s oil supply that has been effectively closed during the confrontation. Restoring transit through this chokepoint could quickly ease global fuel costs and reduce volatility in energy markets.
Risk assets rally on de-escalation hopes
Reduced tensions have supported assets that tend to benefit when confidence in the economic outlook improves.
The S&P 500 recently erased its losses for the year and moved toward record highs as expectations for a diplomatic solution grew. Earlier this week, optimism over a deal helped trigger a sharp rally in global equity and digital asset markets.
Bitcoin climbed to a two-month high of $76,060, while Ethereum advanced to $2,415, reflecting a broad shift toward risk-on positioning. A lasting peace would likely curb demand for assets used as a hedge against sanctions, capital controls, or currency weakness, which often gain during periods of geopolitical stress.
Economic stakes for Iran
The economic pressure on Iran has been intense. The International Monetary Fund now projects a 6.1% contraction in Iran’s GDP for 2026, alongside high inflation and mounting domestic strain.
An agreement that eases sanctions and lifts the U.S. naval blockade would allow Iran to resume oil exports more freely and re-engage with global trade. Such a move could stabilize its economic outlook and redirect capital flows that had been moving toward assets seen as outside the traditional banking system during the height of the crisis.
Markets watch ceasefire deadline and volatility risk
Attention is now focused on whether negotiators can convert the tentative progress into a signed accord before the current ceasefire expires on April 22. The truce was brokered by Pakistan and has provided a temporary pause in fighting.
Failure to secure a deal before the deadline could quickly reintroduce severe volatility. Oil prices, which have eased on expectations of a resolution, could spike again if hostilities resume, while speculative assets may swing sharply.
Recent trading has shown that prices in sensitive markets can move 5–10% within 48 to 72 hours of major political developments. With the deadline approaching, traders will be watching closely for any sign that the emerging agreement is either solidifying or unraveling.
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