The United States and Iran are discussing a draft agreement that could see Tehran gain access to about $20 billion in frozen assets in exchange for giving up its stockpile of enriched uranium, in a move aimed at easing nuclear tensions and stabilizing regional security.
The talks, which form part of a broader diplomatic push under a fragile ceasefire in Lebanon, have already triggered a risk-on shift across global markets, sending the U.S. dollar lower, lifting digital assets and pulling oil prices sharply down as traders reassessed geopolitical risk.
Core details of the draft deal
According to officials familiar with the discussions, the proposal centers on a three-page memorandum covering Iran’s nuclear activity:
- Around 2,000 kilograms of enriched uranium would be removed from Iran or rendered unusable, either:
- shipped to a third country, or
- diluted inside Iran under international monitoring.
- In return, Washington would authorize the release of approximately $20 billion in Iranian funds currently frozen abroad.
A key sticking point is the duration of a halt in uranium enrichment:
- The United States is pushing for a 20-year freeze.
- Tehran has countered with a five-year pause.
Earlier reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency indicated Iran held about 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity, a level close to weapons-grade and a core concern for Western capitals.
Diplomatic track: Pakistan mediates, Egypt and Turkey support
Negotiations are advancing under tight time pressure:
- Further talks are planned in Islamabad, with Pakistan acting as mediator.
- Egypt and Turkey are providing support roles in the process.
- The current ceasefire, including in Lebanon, is set to expire around April 21, leaving only a short window to lock in progress.
Despite differences over timelines and technical conditions, both Washington and Tehran have signaled they intend to keep diplomatic channels open that were reactivated earlier this year.
Strait of Hormuz to stay open during truce
Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said that, in line with the Lebanon ceasefire, commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz will remain fully open for the duration of the truce.
This assurance follows weeks of maritime tension that had slowed crude shipments from the Gulf and injected a risk premium into oil prices. The promise of uninterrupted flows has been a key factor behind the sharp drop in crude benchmarks since the talks became public.
Dollar weakens as safe-haven demand eases
The prospect of reduced geopolitical risk sparked broad selling in the U.S. dollar as demand for safe-haven assets faded.
- The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell between 0.37% and 0.46% on the session, trading around 97.76–97.80.
Major currencies strengthened against the greenback:
- The euro gained about 0.45%, rising to roughly $1.1834.
- The British pound advanced around 0.41%, approaching $1.36.
- The U.S. dollar slipped about 0.69% versus the Canadian dollar, with USDCAD moving toward 1.3719.
- More modest losses were recorded against the yen, Australian dollar and Swiss franc.
The move reflects a rotation away from defensive positioning as traders begin to price in the possibility of a sustained de-escalation.
Oil slides as risk premium evaporates
Energy markets saw the sharpest reaction as the potential deal and Hormuz assurances reduced fears of supply disruption:
- West Texas Intermediate crude fell heavily:
- intraday trading saw prices drop toward $91 per barrel, and
- in one session, WTI settled near $82.70, down 7.70% and at its lowest level in more than a month.
Traders cited two main drivers:
- expectations that oil flows through key Gulf shipping lanes will remain uninterrupted, and
- a rapid unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium built into prices during the recent escalation.
Digital assets benefit from risk-on mood
Digital assets rallied on the initial wave of optimism:
- Total market capitalization for digital assets climbed to about $2.55 trillion, up 1.02% over 24 hours.
- Bitcoin briefly pushed above $76,000 before easing back as some participants took profit and reassessed headline risk.
The move underscores the renewed appetite for higher-risk assets as immediate fears of a wider regional conflict receded.
Rally begins to cool as focus shifts to durability
After the initial surge in risk appetite, the momentum has started to fade. Market participants are now looking past the headlines to concrete outcomes, including:
- a formal extension of the current ceasefire,
- verified implementation of shipping guarantees through the Strait of Hormuz, and
- progress toward a signed memorandum covering uranium removal and an agreed enrichment freeze.
With the truce still temporary and major points in the nuclear talks unresolved, the backdrop remains fragile. Any breakdown in negotiations or renewed tension in the Gulf could quickly reverse the recent pullback in oil prices and revive safe-haven demand, testing the sustainability of the latest risk-on move.
Geopolitical shocks can move crypto fast—understand the macro link by exploring how interest rates drive Bitcoin today.
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