U.S. says “very good talks” with Iran as strait of hormuz tensions rattle oil markets
Trump signals dialogue but warns against “blackmail”
U.S. President Donald Trump said on April 18 that Washington is engaged in “very good talks” with Iran, while insisting that Tehran “cannot blackmail” the United States.
He said discussions were underway as Iran weighed steps related to the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway that carries roughly 20% of global petroleum supplies. Trump added that further updates on the talks and the situation in the strait could come before the end of the day.
Strategic choke point at center of dispute
The comments came amid renewed tension over control and access to the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage linking Gulf producers to global markets.
Iran had previously threatened to restrict transit through the strait as part of a broader regional posture, raising concerns about global supply security and shipping risks. Any disruption there can rapidly affect oil prices, freight rates, and risk appetite among energy-linked assets.
From hardline threats to softer tone
In the days leading up to the remarks, Trump had adopted a more assertive stance. He reportedly authorized preparations for measures that could include targeting key infrastructure and pursuing a naval blockade of Iranian ports.
Those signals of potential military escalation sent a shock through energy markets, given the strait’s critical role in sustaining global supply flows.
However, subsequent communications from Washington shifted in tone. Officials highlighted ongoing dialogue with Tehran and stressed that the maritime corridor remained open to traffic. This change coincided with reports that Iran had allowed normal commercial passage through the strait under its oversight.
Transit resumes under Iranian monitoring
By late April, regional sources said transit operations had largely resumed, though under monitoring conditions imposed by Iranian authorities.
Shipping data indicated that, during a brief reopening window, at least eight oil and gas tankers were able to transit the strait. This contrasted sharply with the earlier near-total standstill, when tanker movements had reportedly fallen by more than 95% after the conflict first flared.
Rapid reversals expose markets to headline risk
The episode highlighted how quickly rhetoric and on-the-ground actions can diverge. On April 17, oil prices fell more than 3% on renewed optimism over a possible deal, with Brent crude slipping toward $96 a barrel. Within hours, subsequent statements and military positioning upended that narrative.
The next day, Iran announced the waterway would be “completely open” to commercial vessels. But within a short period, its military command said control had reverted to strict management by the armed forces. The reversal followed White House statements that a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports would continue until a permanent agreement was reached.
In a sign of renewed tension, gunboats from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reportedly fired on a tanker attempting to pass through the strait on Saturday. While some ships turned back as conditions deteriorated, others that had already entered the corridor managed to complete their transit before restrictions tightened again.
Challenging backdrop for risk-sensitive holdings
For those with exposure to assets tied to global risk sentiment and energy flows, the fast-changing narrative illustrates a period of elevated headline risk and statement-driven volatility.
The back-and-forth dynamic — with conciliatory language one moment and threats of military action the next — reduces the reliability of traditional, fundamentals-based assessments over short horizons.
Positioning around a single, clear outcome in the near term appears particularly hazardous. A more defensive approach may require:
- treating official pronouncements as provisional until confirmed by observable actions, such as sustained shipping patterns or verified de-escalation measures
- stressing scenarios that include sudden and sharp reversals in market direction
- recognizing that liquidity and price transparency can deteriorate quickly if fresh disruptions emerge in the Strait of Hormuz
The sequence of events underscores that Persian Gulf geopolitics remain a direct and powerful driver of global trade flows and energy pricing, with the potential to trigger rapid repricing across multiple asset classes.
Geopolitical shocks can move crypto too. See how macro events shape BTC and altcoins in our latest market analysis.
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