TD Cowen raised its price target on Strategy to $400 from $395 on Tuesday, citing faster bitcoin accumulation and a $1.5 billion buyback of convertible notes. The new target implies more than 140% upside from Strategy’s latest close at $166.63.
Analyst Vitanza and associate Navarrete kept a Buy rating on the shares, saying recent treasury moves have significantly changed their assumptions for bitcoin yield and value creation through 2026.
Revised bitcoin forecasts drive target increase
TD Cowen now expects Strategy to purchase roughly 100,000 bitcoin by the end of the second quarter, after the company raised about $1.95 billion this quarter from preferred equity sales. Common equity issuance has remained limited, and nearly all new capital has been deployed into bitcoin.
The new buying outlook lifts the firm’s 2024 bitcoin yield expectation to 19.8%, up from 18.2%. Projected yearly bitcoin dollar gain has been raised to $15.16 billion from $13.89 billion.
As of May 17, bitcoin per 1,000 fully diluted shares rose to 2.21 from 1.95 at the end of last year, a sign that digital asset holdings are growing faster than share count.
Large note repurchase seen as credit positive
A key factor in TD Cowen’s higher price target is Strategy’s repurchase of $1.5 billion in out-of-the-money convertible notes at about an 8% discount.
The firm said this move:
- cuts future diluted share exposure
- strengthens credit metrics
- reduces refinancing risk in coming years
These balance sheet changes are incorporated into the updated valuation framework.
Valuation: 3x multiple on 2026 bitcoin gains
TD Cowen’s $400 price target is based on:
- a 3x multiple on projected 2026 bitcoin dollar gain of $15.16 billion
- plus estimated year-end 2026 bitcoin holdings worth $132.9 billion
- minus $3.5 billion in debt
- minus $15.5 billion in preferred equity obligations
The resulting equity value translates to roughly $400 per fully diluted share. That compares with a recent close of $166.63, which is about 63% below the 52-week high of $455.90.
Bitcoin stash tops 4% of maximum supply
Following its latest purchases, Strategy now holds 843,738 bitcoin, more than 4% of the fixed 21 million-coin supply cap.
Between May 11 and May 17, the company acquired 24,869 bitcoin at an estimated cost of $2.01 billion, its largest weekly haul since adding 34,164 bitcoin in April. The company’s accumulation program has become a consistent, large source of demand, absorbing a notable share of available supply and potentially shaping market dynamics.
Equity-funded accumulation continues
Strategy has largely financed its expansion through capital markets. The company has raised nearly $2 billion this quarter, primarily via preferred equity and some common stock, then redirected proceeds into bitcoin.
This approach underlines a strategy of using equity markets to scale exposure to the digital asset, rather than relying on internal cash flows alone.
Part of a broader corporate adoption trend
Strategy’s actions come amid a broader shift in corporate treasury management. Publicly traded companies have added about 369,000 bitcoin to their balance sheets over the past year, and more than 140 public firms now report bitcoin holdings.
This corporate adoption is taking place while bitcoin trades around $77,119 as of May 19, 2026, down 4.83% for the week. Market sentiment has softened, with more than $1.5 billion in outflows from spot ETFs and signs of increased hedging activity in options against further downside.
Management signals long-term commitment
Executive chairman Michael Saylor has reiterated a strong long-term stance on bitcoin. He has stated that if the company ever sells part of its holdings, it would aim to repurchase 10 to 20 times the amount sold over time.
That guidance aligns with the firm’s ongoing strategy: treat bitcoin as the primary treasury reserve asset and expand holdings aggressively when capital is available, even amid short-term market volatility.
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