TD Cowen reiterates buy on The Smarter Web Company, keeps £1 price target
Rating and rationale
TD Cowen has reaffirmed its buy rating on The Smarter Web Company and maintained its £1 ($1.36) price target, arguing the firm remains the only London‑listed, institutionally accessible bitcoin treasury company operating at scale in the United Kingdom.
The bank’s analysts, led by Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete, said recent bitcoin purchases at around £57,000 (about $77,000) per coin have lowered the firm’s average cost basis, while leverage of roughly 8% is described as moderate.
Valuation framework
TD Cowen’s £1 target is based on a sum‑of‑the‑parts view for year‑end 2026 that assumes:
- a bitcoin portfolio worth about £311 million ($420.3 million)
- treasury operations valued at roughly £90 million ($121.6 million)
- total equity value near £389 million ($525.9 million)
Bitcoin holdings and performance
The Smarter Web Company began building its bitcoin position in April 2025 and now holds 2,750 BTC, making it the largest corporate holder in the UK and the 27th‑largest public bitcoin treasury globally.
The firm moved into the global top‑25 list in July 2025 after a $36 million purchase, followed by another $35 million a month later, bringing holdings at that time to 2,395 BTC.
At a current bitcoin price of about $77,625, the position is valued at roughly $213.5 million, versus an estimated total cost basis of $304.6 million. That implies an unrealized loss of about $91.1 million, or around 30% below the average purchase price.
Management’s stance and risk profile
Chief executive Andrew Webley has previously said the company would stick with its bitcoin strategy despite market pullbacks, reiterating that approach after reporting a loss of nearly $100 million in February 2026 when bitcoin dropped from late‑2025 highs.
TD Cowen views the current 30% unrealized loss as a function of volatility rather than a strategic failure. The analysts argue the firm’s relatively low leverage provides a buffer against forced selling during downturns and supports a long‑term holding strategy.
Price scenarios and potential catalysts
The bank’s base‑case model assumes bitcoin reaches $140,000 by the end of 2026, about 15% above its prior peak. Scenario analysis includes:
- an upside case of a 40% rise to $175,000
- a downside case of an 80% decline from previous highs
Beyond price moves, TD Cowen highlights several potential catalysts:
- regulatory outcomes, including progress on the proposed Genius Act and Clarity Act
- the possible launch of a sterling‑denominated preferred share to raise capital
- further bitcoin purchases that could adjust the company’s cost basis
Market context and trading levels
TD Cowen initiated coverage earlier in April as part of a broader review of digital asset‑linked companies.
Shares of The Smarter Web Company last traded at 36.79 pence on the London Stock Exchange, slightly below the prior close of 37.00 pence and well under the bank’s £1 target.
In the broader market, bitcoin has been consolidating after a sharp pullback from levels above $100,000 in the first quarter. As of 27 April 2026, the asset was trading around $77,650, near the company’s average acquisition cost and just below a technical and psychological resistance zone around $80,000.
Thirty‑day volatility stands above 40%, and trading conditions remain sensitive to macroeconomic releases, including upcoming US consumer confidence and inflation data.
What traders are watching
Market participants are closely watching whether bitcoin can break and hold above $80,000, a move that would ease pressure on The Smarter Web Company’s current position.
Attention is also on any decision by Webley to authorize additional bitcoin purchases, which could signal continued confidence in the strategy and further lower the average cost basis.
Separately, concrete progress on the Genius Act or Clarity Act, as well as any move to issue a sterling‑denominated preferred share, is seen as potentially significant. Clearer regulation and new funding channels are viewed by TD Cowen as key to unlocking broader institutional participation in this segment of the market.
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