Silver holds near $74 as markets await US–Iran peace talks outcome
Silver price steady ahead of Islamabad talks
Silver traded nearly flat around $74 per ounce in late Asian hours on Thursday, as markets paused ahead of the first formal round of peace discussions between the United States and Iran, scheduled for Saturday in Pakistan. The talks will review a 10-point proposal aimed at securing a permanent ceasefire across several conflict zones, a development seen as a potential binary trigger for risk assets.
White House Press Secretary Leavitt said U.S. Vice President Vance will lead the delegation to Islamabad to assess Iran’s proposal, submitted earlier in the week. Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator, Qalibaf, claimed on social media that Washington has already violated three clauses of the plan, including a demand for an immediate halt to hostilities in Lebanon and neighboring areas.
Geopolitics, oil and shifting rate expectations
Silver’s upside has been capped in recent weeks as energy markets digested Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, following U.S. and Israeli military operations in the region. The disruption pushed oil prices higher and briefly reinforced expectations that major central banks could maintain tighter monetary policy for longer.
Those expectations have cooled since Washington and Tehran agreed to a temporary two‑week ceasefire, easing demand for defensive assets. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now assign a 76.4% probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year, a shift from earlier forecasts that had priced in two rate hikes during the height of the conflict.
However, the absence of clear prospects for rate cuts has also kept pressure on non‑yielding commodities such as silver, which offer no income in a high-rate environment.
Technical picture: narrow range, clear levels
As of publication, silver remained almost unchanged at $74 per ounce, consolidating below the 20‑period exponential moving average at $74.89 and retaining a mild downward short‑term bias.
Key levels include:
- Resistance: $74.89 (20‑period EMA). A sustained break above this level could open the way toward the April 2 high at $81.13.
- Support: $70, followed by the March 26 low at $66.70. A move below $70 would signal renewed selling pressure and extend the recent downtrend.
Market participants are largely holding positions within this range, waiting for a clearer signal from the weekend talks.
Binary risk event for safe-haven trade
The Islamabad meeting is seen as a pivotal event for assets linked to geopolitical risk. A failure in negotiations could quickly revive demand for perceived havens, potentially lifting silver as capital rotates back into defensive positions.
By contrast, a credible diplomatic breakthrough, with visible commitment from both Vance and Qalibaf to the 10-point framework, could sap momentum from safe-haven trades. That scenario would likely favor assets tied more directly to economic growth and lower energy costs, at the expense of metals that have benefited from geopolitical tensions.
Stubborn inflation keeps pressure on non-yielding assets
The geopolitical backdrop is developing against a stream of inflation data that complicates the case for monetary easing. The March Consumer Price Index showed annual inflation holding at 3.1%, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance and preserving a relatively high opportunity cost for holding non‑yielding assets such as silver.
By the end of the first quarter of 2026, global exchange‑traded products backed by precious metals had recorded net outflows of $3.2 billion, as traders sought higher returns in other asset classes. The market focus is now on whether a fresh geopolitical shock could be strong enough to reverse this established pattern of capital allocation.
Outlook: price action guided by defined boundaries
In the near term, silver’s direction is likely to be dictated by the established technical boundaries and headlines from Islamabad.
- A decisive break above $74.89 would signal improving sentiment and increase the probability of a retest of $81.13.
- A failure to hold the $70 support level would reinforce the current bearish tilt and suggest that macro and geopolitical factors remain insufficient to spark a sustained rebound.
Until the outcome of the talks becomes clearer, the market appears set to remain in a holding pattern around current levels.
Curious how macro events move metals and crypto together? Learn how interest rates shape Bitcoin and broader market trends.
