Silver prices were little changed in European trading on Friday, holding near $78.70 per ounce as markets waited for confirmation of a second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran before a ceasefire deadline on April 21.
Price action and recent gains
Spot silver was last quoted around $79.18 per ounce, up 0.98% on the day and on track for a potential fourth straight weekly advance. The metal is trading close to recent highs, but repeated failures to hold above the $80 level this week point to rising downside risks even as the broader uptrend from March remains intact.
Geopolitics pressures the dollar, supports precious metals
Washington has said both sides agreed to resume talks after the previous meeting ended without a deal. The US president has claimed Tehran is more open to concessions, including limiting nuclear activities, surrendering enriched uranium and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials have not publicly confirmed those details, leaving markets in a state of uncertainty ahead of the April 21 ceasefire expiry.
Hopes for a lasting agreement have reduced demand for traditional safe havens, weighing on the US dollar. The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against six major peers, is set for its second consecutive weekly drop and remains on course for a third straight weekly loss over the broader period, despite stabilizing above the 98.00 level. The dollar has fallen about 1.8% over the past month, in line with its historically weaker performance in April.
A softer dollar tends to support dollar-priced commodities, including silver and gold, by making them cheaper for holders of other currencies. Both metals are also drawing support from their perceived safe-haven role as traders weigh geopolitical risks against the prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough.
Energy pullback eases inflation concerns
Optimism around the talks has helped unwind some of the risk premium in energy markets. West Texas Intermediate crude futures have retreated toward $93 per barrel after a March rally of around 50%. The pullback in oil prices is tempering near-term inflation expectations and reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten policy more aggressively.
New York Fed President John Williams this week said current monetary settings are appropriate to manage economic risks linked to Middle East tensions, and he projected US growth in a 2.0%–2.5% range this year. Easing inflation fears and a less robust dollar are helping underpin demand for non-yielding assets such as silver, which tend to fare better in environments of moderate inflation and weaker currency performance.
Technical picture: consolidation with key levels in focus
On the charts, XAG/USD is consolidating around the 20‑period exponential moving average (EMA) near $76.35, reflecting a more balanced tone after recent gains. An ascending triangle pattern is forming, with a base near $60.86 and upper resistance around $75.97, pointing to persistent underlying support despite intermittent pullbacks.
Momentum indicators are neutral. The Relative Strength Index is fluctuating between 40 and 60, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions.
Key levels include:
- immediate resistance at $80.76, where a sustained close above could open the way toward the March 13 peak at $85.46
- first support around the 20‑period EMA at $76.35 and along the trendline zone near $75.97
- a break below trendline support at $75.97 that could accelerate a move toward deeper levels around $74.90 or below
Repeated intraday rejections above $80 this week signal that upside momentum is fading, and a downside break of support would reinforce the case for a corrective phase in the short term.
Structural deficit underpins longer-term outlook
Beyond near-term geopolitical and currency drivers, silver’s fundamental backdrop remains tight. The physical market is in its sixth consecutive year of supply‑demand deficit, a structural shortfall that continues to offer a longer‑term tailwind.
Even with a projected slowdown in industrial fabrication, the deficit is expected to widen from 40.3 million ounces in 2025 to 46.3 million ounces in 2026. Demand for coins and bars is forecast to rise by about 18% over that period, helping to deepen the gap.
Silver’s role as both an industrial metal and a store of value keeps it sensitive to shifts in global manufacturing trends, monetary policy expectations and moves in gold, with which it often trades in tandem. For now, the combination of a softer dollar, easing energy prices and a persistent structural deficit is helping to keep prices supported, even as chart signals warn that the next decisive move could be triggered by developments in the US–Iran talks.
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