Silver prices stayed firm above the key $80.00 level in Asian trading on Thursday, briefly touching $80.50 before easing, and holding near a one‑month high set the previous day. The metal was up about 1.5% on the session, reinforcing its short‑term upward bias.
Key technical levels and short‑term structure
Price action overnight showed a shallow pullback that found support near the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the March decline. From there, silver rebounded and moved back above the 200‑period simple moving average (SMA) on the four‑hour chart, a move that typically signals an upward‑leaning structure in the near term.
Momentum gauges continue to show strong underlying demand. The relative strength index (RSI) hovered near 69, close to the threshold often associated with overbought conditions, while the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram stayed in positive territory. Together, these indicators point to sustained buying pressure but also hint that the market could be approaching stretched levels.
On the upside, resistance is seen first at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near $82.86. Above that, additional technical barriers emerge at $88.83 and the previous cycle high of $96.44.
On the downside, initial support is located at $78.66, followed by the four‑hour 200‑period SMA around $77.49. A deeper slide could expose lower retracement levels near $74.47 and $69.27.
Analysts highlight these zones as reference points for short‑term direction as silver trades just above a psychologically important threshold and maintains its broader upward trend.
Inflation backdrop complicates policy outlook
The price action in silver is unfolding against a backdrop of rising inflation and shifting expectations for monetary policy.
The latest consumer price index report showed annual inflation running at 3.3% for the 12 months through March, up from 2.4% in February and marking the highest reading in nearly two years. A significant portion of that acceleration came from a sharp 10.9% jump in the energy index in March alone, intensifying concerns about the durability of price pressures.
These figures have prompted a more cautious tone from central bank officials. Cleveland Federal Reserve President Hammack said on April 15 that a patient approach is needed and argued that interest rates should remain on hold as conditions evolve. That stance has cooled earlier expectations for rate cuts, with futures markets now pricing in a strong likelihood that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep rates steady at its next meeting.
Dollar moves and safe‑haven dynamics
Currency markets have added another layer to the silver narrative. The U.S. dollar index has retreated about 1.56% over the past month and was last trading near 98.02. Historically, a weaker dollar tends to support hard‑asset prices by making them cheaper in other currencies.
However, recent bouts of dollar strength have emerged on safe‑haven demand amid persistent geopolitical tensions. This tug‑of‑war in the currency market has contributed to choppy but generally supportive conditions for precious metals.
Structural demand supports longer‑term outlook
Beyond trading flows, silver’s longer‑term backdrop remains anchored by industrial usage. Projections point to a structural supply deficit for a sixth straight year, reflecting steady demand from sectors such as solar energy, electronics, and other high‑tech applications.
Forecasts for 2026 industrial demand differ, with some scenarios calling for a modest pullback and others anticipating a sizeable increase. Even so, ongoing consumption from key growth industries is seen as providing a floor under valuations, reinforcing silver’s role as both an industrial metal and a store of value for traders tracking the broader macroeconomic and policy landscape.
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