Silver prices moved higher on Friday, briefly trading above $79 per ounce as a softer US dollar and easing geopolitical risks supported demand for the metal. Silver rose about 1.25% to around $79.40, extending gains near multi‑year highs amid cautious market conditions and uncertainty over US monetary policy.
Geopolitics and safe-haven flows
Market attention centered on potential renewed talks between Washington and Tehran ahead of the April 21 expiry of the current two‑week ceasefire. Officials signaled that discussions could resume before the deadline, and any progress is being closely monitored for its impact on global risk sentiment and safe-haven flows.
President Trump said this week that a diplomatic breakthrough with Iran may be close, with negotiations expected to focus on Tehran’s nuclear program and enriched uranium levels. Reports suggest Iran may consider shipping part of its enriched uranium stockpile abroad as a compromise.
The perception of reduced near‑term systemic risk has weighed on the dollar and encouraged a shift toward assets viewed as alternative stores of value and those with higher growth potential.
Dollar weakness underpins metal prices
The US dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, posted another weekly decline and was last seen around 98.19, reflecting persistent concern over the economic outlook. The currency has struggled to find support as traders reassess the path of US monetary policy.
A weaker dollar typically makes dollar‑denominated commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies, helping underpin demand for precious metals such as silver. The ongoing softness in the greenback has prompted a broader reallocation of capital toward assets perceived as less directly tied to the policy stance of any single central bank.
Middle East tensions and energy prices
Signs of easing tensions in the Middle East contributed to lower oil prices, which in turn pulled down inflation expectations. Cheaper energy has reinforced the view that price pressures may remain contained, prompting traders to increase bets on a more flexible, potentially less hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve over the coming months.
Lower inflation projections and subdued bond yields support non‑yielding assets, as the opportunity cost of holding metals that do not pay interest remains limited. Against this backdrop, silver continues to trade near multi‑year highs, driven by the combined effects of currency moves, geopolitical developments and shifting policy expectations.
Federal Reserve outlook in focus
The Federal Reserve remains in a holding pattern ahead of its next policy meeting on April 28–29. New York Fed President John Williams recently projected annual inflation in a 2.75% to 3% range, while futures markets have shifted sharply this year from expecting two rate cuts to now pricing in the possibility of no cuts for the remainder of 2026.
This reduced likelihood of lower interest rates complicates the outlook and is forcing a reassessment of how and where capital might seek returns that can beat inflation. A backdrop of stable but relatively high rates, combined with a weakening dollar, creates a distinctive setting for assets that function as stores of value outside traditional banking and government balance sheets.
Data watch: PCE inflation ahead
Traders are now focused on upcoming economic releases, particularly the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index due on April 30, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. Any significant surprise in the PCE data could swiftly alter expectations for Fed policy, influencing the appeal of fixed‑supply assets such as precious metals and shaping the next move in silver prices.
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