The global prediction market industry could reach $1 trillion in annual trading volume by 2030, according to new projections from brokerage firm Bernstein. The analysts cite clearer U.S. regulation, broader retail distribution, and deeper liquidity than traditional betting platforms as key drivers of growth.
Current size and rapid expansion
Bernstein, led by analyst Gautam Chhugani, estimates prediction markets generated about $51 billion in annual trading volume in 2025, roughly triple the prior year.
Activity that had been concentrated around the 2024 U.S. election has shifted toward a wider mix of contracts tied to sports, cryptocurrencies, macroeconomic data, and political outcomes globally.
Combined trading on Kalshi and Polymarket has already reached $60 billion this year, Bernstein said, with forecasts of $240 billion in 2026 and an 80% compound annual growth rate for the sector through the remainder of the decade.
Regulatory shift and CFTC role
Federal-level regulatory progress in the United States is helping remove fragmented state-by-state barriers and is seen as a catalyst for institutional adoption.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has asserted exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets and plans to formalize industry rules as trading grows. A draft framework issued in February 2026 provided additional clarity, especially on how event contracts linked to economic data are classified.
Public records show the CFTC received more than 2,500 comments during its consultation period, underscoring intense industry engagement with the proposed guidelines.
Tokenization and global liquidity
Blockchain-based tokenization is playing a central role in building global liquidity and enabling institutional access, Bernstein said. On-chain analytics show this expansion in real time: Polymarket alone processed more than $1.2 billion in settled volume in the first quarter of 2026, with a clear spike around the Federal Reserve’s March interest rate decision.
Kalshi’s contracts on metrics such as inflation and gasoline prices now see daily volumes that rival some traditional futures markets, according to market data cited in the report.
Shifting market mix beyond sports
Sports contracts currently account for about 62% of prediction market turnover, a dominance Bernstein links to uneven online betting rules across U.S. states.
By 2030, Bernstein expects that share to fall to roughly 31% as contracts tied to cryptocurrencies, macroeconomic indicators, and political outcomes scale. The analysts argue that a structural change is underway as participants increasingly use these platforms to speculate on a broader set of outcomes beyond simple sports wagers.
This diversification into economic and asset-class-specific events is drawing a new demographic of users, particularly those accustomed to volatile, information-driven markets. These traders are using event contracts to express views on regulatory decisions, technology adoption, and other binary outcomes that can directly affect digital-asset portfolios.
Revenue outlook and monetization
Prediction market revenues are projected to jump from $400 million in 2025 to around $2.5 billion in 2026, powered by surging volumes and more aggressive monetization.
With Polymarket ending its zero-fee structure, the firm’s annual recurring revenue has climbed to about $420 million, Bernstein said. Across the sector, total revenues are forecast to reach roughly $10.8 billion by 2030.
Robinhood’s role and earnings impact
Retail brokerage Robinhood has emerged as a major access point for prediction markets through its Kalshi-integrated hub, which generated about $350 million in annualized revenue within a year of launch, according to Bernstein.
The firm expects Robinhood to benefit from both the prediction market boom and a potential broader rebound in cryptocurrencies. Bernstein set a price target of $130 per share, implying substantial upside from recent levels.
Prediction market income for Robinhood could rise from about $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, the analysts estimate. That would represent around 17% of Robinhood’s transaction-based revenue and 10% of total company revenue for that year.
Bernstein flagged the 2026 Football World Cup and U.S. midterm elections as major upcoming catalysts for trading volume on the platform.
Ratings on Robinhood and Coinbase
Bernstein rates both Robinhood and Coinbase “outperform,” with price targets of $130 and $330, respectively. Those targets indicate potential gains of 81% for Robinhood and 89% for Coinbase from their latest closing prices.
Affiliated entities of Bernstein act as liquidity providers in the equities of both companies, and Chhugani holds positions in various digital assets, the report disclosed.
Growing use of event contracts as hedging tools
Beyond speculation, Bernstein expects institutional participation to expand through contracts tied to economic and business events, creating new tools for corporate hedging against specific risks.
Event contracts allow traders to hedge or express directional views on outcomes such as regulatory rulings, inflation prints, or the adoption rate of new technologies. For firms with exposure to digital assets or sensitive revenue lines, these contracts offer a targeted way to manage the impact of binary events.
Retail access and upcoming catalysts
The integration of prediction markets into mainstream brokerage apps is channeling substantial new capital into the space. Robinhood co-founder and chief executive Vlad Tenev has indicated that deeper integration of event-based contracts will be a priority in the platform’s next development cycle.
Kalshi’s growing menu of contracts, including those on inflation data and gasoline prices, is increasingly used by market participants positioning around key dates on the economic calendar.
Traders are also preparing for a series of potentially high-volume events later this year. Contracts allow them to take positions not only on direct outcomes of the U.S. midterm elections, but also on secondary economic effects, such as shifts in fiscal policy or regulatory agendas.
According to Bernstein, the rapid expansion and increasing granularity of these platforms are turning prediction markets into a more central mechanism for trading views on a wide range of interconnected global events.
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