Polymarket is preparing a long-term push into Japan and has appointed a local representative as it seeks government approval to run prediction markets in the country by 2030, according to people familiar with the plan.
The company has tapped Mike Eidlin, formerly head of Japan at asset manager Jupiter, to lead the expansion. It is Polymarket’s first formal step toward securing authorization in one of the world’s most tightly regulated gambling environments.
Testing Japan’s strict legal limits
Japan’s Penal Code heavily restricts gambling, with penalties of up to three years in prison for habitual gambling and up to five years for running a gambling business. Exceptions are limited mainly to state-sanctioned services such as horse racing and public lotteries.
Polymarket is currently unavailable in Japan due to regulatory and sanctions compliance rules. The new initiative signals a deliberate, long-term strategy to obtain explicit government approval rather than operate in a legal gray area.
Eidlin’s assignment comes as Japan prepares a sweeping overhaul of its digital asset framework. Authorities are in the final stages of reclassifying digital assets from payment tools to financial products under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act, with implementation expected by 2026.
That change will subject digital assets to rules closer to those for securities, including insider trading bans and stricter disclosure standards for issuers. Navigating this tougher regime will be central to Polymarket’s attempt to secure a foothold in the country.
Trading volumes shift as competition heats up
Polymarket’s global activity has cooled slightly in recent months. The platform recorded $9 billion in trading volume in April, down from $10.57 billion in March, its first monthly decline since August last year.
Over the same period, rival Kalshi posted rising numbers, with monthly volume climbing to $14.81 billion from $13 billion. Between May 8 and May 15, Kalshi’s notional trading volume reached $4.134 billion, more than double Polymarket’s $1.938 billion.
On specific high-interest contracts, such as markets linked to the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, the two platforms have collectively seen trading volume exceed $12.5 million, underscoring sustained appetite for event-based contracts even as regulatory pressure grows.
US return and regulatory friction
The Japan strategy follows Polymarket’s re-entry into the United States through the acquisition of a federally regulated derivatives exchange. That U.S. platform is operating on a limited basis and is in talks with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) about resuming broader domestic activity.
Polymarket continues to face scrutiny across multiple U.S. states. Several state-level authorities have taken action alleging that the firm’s sports-related contracts violate local gambling laws.
Separately, the CFTC has filed suit against the state of Minnesota over a new law banning prediction markets outright. The federal challenge highlights a deepening conflict between national derivatives rules and state-level efforts to treat prediction markets as gambling.
Rising attention to suspicious trading activity has also triggered increased internal investigations across major event-trading platforms since the start of the year, adding compliance strain as they seek regulatory acceptance.
Asia-Pacific pressure builds
Beyond Japan, oversight in Asia is tightening. Regulators in South Korea are reviewing whether Polymarket’s contracts constitute illegal gambling, while authorities in India have already blocked access to the platform.
Indian officials say they are preparing to impose similar restrictions on Kalshi as early as Friday, signaling a broader regional crackdown on speculative event-trading platforms.
Long road to a legal Japan launch
Polymarket’s decision to target Japan reflects a bet that formal approval can be achieved over a multi-year horizon, despite a deeply entrenched anti-gambling stance and a rapidly hardening digital asset regime.
By appointing a locally experienced executive in Eidlin and aligning its timeline with Japan’s 2026 financial regulation overhaul and a 2030 licensing goal, the firm is signaling that a compliant, fully authorized rollout – rather than quick access – is the only viable path into one of Asia’s most tightly controlled markets.
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