Brent crude retreats after nearing $100 as shifting Iran–US signals spark volatility
Oil rallies toward $100, then pulls back
Brent crude futures briefly approached $100 per barrel on Thursday before easing on Friday, as conflicting signals over talks between the United States and Iran drove sharp swings in energy markets.
Data from Deutsche Bank showed Brent jumping 4.70% on Thursday to close at $99.39 a barrel, after earlier reports suggested limited progress in negotiations. By Friday morning, prices had slipped back toward $96, giving up part of the previous session’s gains as more upbeat comments from Washington prompted profit-taking.
WTI crude futures also edged lower on Friday, trimming some of the prior day’s advance.
Diplomatic signals drive price swings
Thursday’s rally followed a series of downbeat headlines on the state of US–Iran talks. Reuters, citing two Iranian sources, reported that Washington and Tehran had scaled back ambitions for a broad agreement and were instead exploring a temporary memorandum aimed at avoiding renewed hostilities.
Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported that, with Pakistan mediating, Tehran was demanding that Washington honor existing commitments before moving to wider terms. The outlet added that talks would be of limited value without a clearly defined preliminary framework.
The tone shifted after remarks from the White House. The US President said on Thursday that a deal with Iran was “very close,” claiming Tehran had agreed in principle to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile. Iranian officials have not publicly confirmed that assertion.
This back-and-forth has intensified price sensitivity just days before a temporary ceasefire deadline on April 22, with crude reacting sharply to each new headline.
Historic supply shock reshapes outlook
Behind the diplomatic noise, the physical oil market is grappling with what the International Energy Agency (IEA) has described as the most severe supply disruption on record.
According to the IEA, global oil supply dropped by an unprecedented 10.1 million barrels per day in March, driven by infrastructure attacks and restrictions on tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global crude flows.
At the same time, elevated prices are starting to erode demand. The IEA has reversed its previous forecasts and now expects global oil demand in 2026 to contract by 80,000 barrels per day, compared with an earlier projection of 730,000 barrels per day growth. For April alone, the agency estimates demand will fall by 2.3 million barrels per day.
Short-term moves dominated by headlines
For energy traders, the current environment underscores that short-term price direction is being set primarily by news flow, particularly unverified political statements.
With the market highly reactive to each update from diplomatic channels, taking positions on initial headlines before confirmation from multiple sources carries elevated risk. The same commentary that fuels a rally can quickly reverse sentiment and trigger equally rapid declines.
Equities look past oil volatility
Despite the surge and subsequent pullback in crude, broader US equity benchmarks have so far appeared resilient. The S&P 500 index rose to a fresh all‑time high of 7,052 on Friday morning, signaling a different assessment of risk outside energy markets.
Attention now turns to potential renewed talks over the weekend and the looming April 22 truce deadline, as energy markets brace for further volatility tied to the diplomatic calendar.
Curious how macro events move crypto too? Explore how interest rates drive Bitcoin volatility next.
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