Bernstein reiterated its “outperform” rating on Figure Technology Solutions and kept a $67 price target after the fintech reported a sharp jump in first‑quarter 2026 lending and better‑than‑expected revenue and profit margins.
The target implies about 72% upside from Tuesday’s close of $38.97. Figure shares are down 4.6% year to date, while the S&P 500 is up 8.3%. The stock has traded between $25.01 and $78.00 over the past 52 weeks.
Headline numbers beat expectations
- First‑quarter loan volume: $2.9 billion, up 113% from a year earlier
- Adjusted net revenue: $167 million, up 92% year over year and 6% above consensus
- Adjusted EBITDA: $82.7 million, roughly a 50% margin and slightly ahead of the $80 million estimate
- GAAP diluted EPS: $0.18, 9% below consensus, pressured by $26 million in stock‑based compensation, down from $40 million in the prior quarter
Management guided second‑quarter loan volume to between $3.8 billion and $4.1 billion, roughly 35% above the first quarter, after reporting record April originations of $1.34 billion.
Marketplace engine: figure connect
Figure’s blockchain‑powered lending marketplace, Figure Connect, accounted for 56% of total loan volume in the first quarter, up from 54% in the prior period. The platform is now supported by 387 distribution partners after a record 80 new additions in the quarter.
New entrants include Flagstar Bank, one of the top 35 U.S. banks by assets and the nation’s sixth‑largest mortgage lender, highlighting growing interest from regulated financial institutions in blockchain‑based credit infrastructure.
Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said rising marketplace volumes remain the central driver of their earnings forecasts.
Margins hold despite shift in loan mix
A greater share of first‑lien loans reached 20% of the portfolio in the quarter, a mix that would typically compress margins in traditional lending. Even so, Figure’s net take‑rate held at 3.8%, suggesting structural cost and efficiency advantages in its marketplace model.
Premium valuation anchored to 2027 outlook
Bernstein continues to value Figure at 25 times estimated 2027 EBITDA, a multiple the firm notes is well above traditional exchange and blockchain finance peers. The premium is tied to expectations of sustained growth in marketplace volumes and expanding use of blockchain for capital markets activity.
Bernstein began coverage in October 2025 with a $54 target, raised that to $72 in January, and reset to $67 in March. Figure went public in September 2025 at $36 per share, with a listing valuation above $7 billion.
Tokenization push gains traction
Figure is also building out tokenized products that link traditional assets to digital markets:
- YLDS, its SEC‑registered, yield‑bearing security token backed by short‑term Treasurys, saw supply rise 80% quarter‑over‑quarter to $598 million. The token offers a regulated, interest‑bearing alternative to conventional stablecoins and has recently expanded to the Stellar network.
- Democratized Prime, a platform that redistributes stock‑lending proceeds to shareholders and facilitates on‑chain borrowing and lending backed by real‑world assets, grew assets under management 79% to $368 million. Home equity lines of credit are among the collateral types used.
These initiatives position Figure within the broader push to tokenize real‑world assets, a segment that industry forecasts see exceeding $2 trillion in 2026.
New lending segments and diversification
Small business lending began contributing meaningfully, adding $60 million in loan volume during the quarter. Figure is also expanding into auto and new mortgage categories, broadening its revenue base beyond its core home‑equity and marketplace offerings.
Key metrics for market watchers
Market participants tracking Figure’s blockchain‑enabled model are likely to focus on:
- Quarterly marketplace loan volumes and whether they meet the $3.8–$4.1 billion second‑quarter outlook
- Growth in distribution partners on Figure Connect, especially among regulated banks and non‑bank lenders
- Stability of the 3.8% net take‑rate as the mix of first‑lien loans rises
- Supply and yields of YLDS as a gauge of demand for regulated, tokenized, interest‑bearing assets
- Assets and activity on Democratized Prime, including matched offers and borrower demand
- Progress in new categories such as small business, auto, and mortgage lending
For now, Bernstein’s reaffirmed rating and premium valuation framework reflect confidence that Figure’s marketplace growth, margin resilience, and tokenization strategy can support earnings expansion well ahead of traditional finance peers.
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