U.S. stock futures rose slightly early Tuesday as signs of progress toward a ceasefire with Iran and softer inflation data supported risk appetite, while traders focused on a busy slate of bank earnings.
By 03:17 ET (07:17 GMT), Dow futures were up 51 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures added 10 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 72 points, or 0.3%. The moves came after Wall Street’s main indices climbed about 1% on Monday, reversing losses tied to stalled peace talks over the weekend.
Crude prices slipped, with Brent down 1.5% at $97.88 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate off 3.4% at $95.78, as traders weighed a possible normalization of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz against a continuing U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports.
Ceasefire momentum and naval blockade
The White House said Iranian officials had reached out for further talks aimed at ending the conflict, adding to a sense that tensions may be easing.
At the same time, a U.S. blockade, backed by about 15 warships, continued into its second day, limiting access to Iranian ports and coastlines from the Persian Gulf into parts of the Arabian Sea. British maritime authorities reported constraints on commercial shipping entering or exiting Iranian waters.
Diplomatic efforts remained active. Pakistan has offered to host another negotiation round in Islamabad before a two-week truce expires. Israel and Lebanon are preparing for direct talks in Washington, though Israel’s recent air operations in Lebanon continue to be a key obstacle to a durable agreement.
Oil prices and OPEC outlook
Oil prices drifting below $100 per barrel reflected speculation that trade through the Strait of Hormuz could soon improve if diplomacy advances.
Alongside price moves, OPEC trimmed its forecast for second-quarter global oil demand by 500,000 barrels per day but left its full-year outlook unchanged, expecting consumption to pick up later in 2026.
Inflation cools and rate-cut bets rise
The geopolitical easing coincided with softer U.S. inflation data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index rose 2.8% in March from a year earlier, below economists’ expectations of 3.0%.
The moderation, helped by falling energy costs, reduces pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep policy tight. Federal funds futures now imply about a 75% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s June meeting, up from roughly 40% a week earlier.
A shift toward easier policy typically supports high-growth and higher-risk assets that are sensitive to interest-rate changes.
Capital flows and market sentiment
Recent Treasury International Capital data showed a net $50 billion outflow from U.S. government bonds in the latest monthly period, signaling that traders are rotating away from safe-haven debt and into riskier assets as they anticipate a more supportive economic and monetary backdrop.
However, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains around 18.5, above the very low levels seen during periods of complacency. That reading suggests lingering unease and the potential for sharper price swings in assets exposed to changes in global liquidity.
Bank earnings in focus
U.S. financials are set to dominate the corporate calendar. JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup are due to publish first-quarter results before Tuesday’s opening bell. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley follow on Wednesday.
Goldman Sachs on Monday reported a 19% rise in profit, helped by strong trading and advisory revenue during a period of elevated market volatility.
European luxury names under pressure
In Europe, LVMH shares slipped after the luxury group said unrest in the Middle East had shaved about 1% off total revenue. The company posted a 1% rise in quarterly sales, missing expectations of 1.5%, as regional disruptions weighed on retail activity.
Rival Kering, owner of Gucci, is scheduled to report results later on Tuesday and will be watched for further signs of how geopolitical tensions and uneven global demand are affecting the high-end retail sector.
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