U.S. stock futures inched higher on Thursday as traders weighed signs of renewed peace efforts between Washington and Tehran and easing volatility across global markets, while oil held below $100 a barrel.
U.S. futures and global equity moves
By 03:38 ET (07:38 GMT), Dow futures were up 56 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures rose 15 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 114 points, or 0.4%.
In cash trading on Wednesday, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed at record highs, helped by optimism over a possible de-escalation in the Middle East. The Nasdaq’s advance extended its longest winning streak since November 2021, underscoring renewed appetite for technology and growth names.
Asian markets followed suit, with Japan’s Nikkei reaching a fresh record high. European shares opened slightly higher, taking their cue from Wall Street’s upbeat tone.
Geopolitics: ceasefire efforts and Hormuz in focus
Market sentiment was supported by reports that Washington and Tehran plan to resume direct talks aimed at formalizing a ceasefire, after discussions in Pakistan over the weekend ended without a deal. Sources said a date and venue for the new round of talks have not yet been agreed.
Mediators are seeking to extend a temporary ceasefire and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that handles roughly one-fifth of global oil trade and has faced partial closures.
Vice President Vance is expected to lead the U.S. delegation if talks go ahead. Separately, President Trump said negotiations between Israel and Lebanon will be held later Thursday, amid indications from Lebanese officials that a bilateral ceasefire could soon be finalized.
Tensions at sea remain elevated. An Iranian military commander warned the U.S. against keeping a naval blockade of Iranian ports. Washington insists the blockade is still in place, though some tankers and merchant ships reportedly passed through the Strait this week.
Oil prices stabilize below $100
Oil prices rose modestly but stayed under $100 a barrel, as traders balanced the risk of prolonged shipping disruptions against signs of easing geopolitical strains. Crude remains well above pre-war levels, yet is on course for weekly losses as markets increasingly price in the possibility of a more durable peace.
Improved risk appetite has seen some capital rotate out of commodities, including energy, and back toward growth sectors after a period when funds had sought safety in raw materials.
Corporate earnings and tech leadership
Corporate earnings are back in focus, with results from PepsiCo and Netflix among the key releases due later in the day. The pace of reporting is set to pick up through the week, offering more clarity on how regional conflicts and higher energy costs are feeding through to corporate margins and spending plans.
Technology names remain at the center of the current rally. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing reported record quarterly net profit of T$572.48 billion ($18.15 billion) for the three months to March 31, beating forecasts of T$542.38 billion and jumping 58.3% from a year earlier.
Revenue climbed 35% year-on-year to T$1.134 trillion, driven largely by persisting demand for artificial intelligence hardware. The company flagged potential risks from chemical and power supply interruptions linked to Middle East tensions but does not expect near-term production disruptions.
The strong semiconductor earnings, tied to AI and broader digital infrastructure demand, are reinforcing the case for assets exposed to technological change and longer-term growth themes.
Volatility, flows and risk appetite
Signs of easing geopolitical risk are visible in volatility gauges. The CBOE Volatility Index, a widely watched measure of expected stock market swings, traded around 18.36, down from peaks reached during the height of the Middle East conflict. The lower reading suggests a greater willingness among market participants to hold riskier assets.
Fund flow data from the first quarter show how positioning has shifted through the crisis. Equity exchange-traded fund inflows slowed in March as tensions escalated, while energy funds that had previously dominated flows have seen allocations rotate back toward growth-oriented sectors, including technology.
The Nasdaq Composite’s broad-based advance to record closes reflects this shift, with capital gravitating toward innovation-focused names and away from earlier safe-haven trades.
Inflation, the Fed and the macro backdrop
Recent U.S. inflation data are providing a cautiously supportive backdrop. The March Consumer Price Index rose 3.3% year-on-year, lifted in large part by higher energy prices. However, core CPI, which strips out food and energy, increased just 0.2% on the month, hinting that underlying price pressures may be moderating.
The softer core trend could allow the Federal Reserve more flexibility later in the year, a prospect that has encouraged exposure to assets dependent on forward-looking confidence and earnings growth, especially in technology and other high-growth segments.
China growth and oil demand outlook
China’s economy expanded 5% in the first quarter of 2026, beating expectations and touching the upper end of Beijing’s annual target. Strong exports and improving consumer spending underpinned the performance.
The better-than-expected data slightly improved forecasts for oil demand from the world’s largest crude importer, offering some support to prices even as traders focus on the de-escalation narrative in the Middle East.
Overall, the combination of tentative diplomatic progress, firm technology earnings, moderating core inflation and resilient global growth is underpinning risk sentiment, while leaving markets sensitive to any setbacks on the geopolitical front.
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