Optimism over a potential peace deal between the United States and Iran pushed global stock markets higher on Tuesday, while oil and precious metals fell and bitcoin suffered a sharp intraday reversal.
Equities rise, oil slips below $90
The S&P 500 Index moved closer to the 7,000 level, its highest in several weeks, as easing geopolitical risks supported risk appetite across global equity markets.
At the same time, spot West Texas Intermediate crude dipped below $90 per barrel, extending a pullback in energy prices as traders priced out some of the conflict-related supply risk.
Hopes for breakthrough in US–Iran talks
Sentiment was buoyed by reports that Tehran may agree to suspend uranium enrichment for ten years, raising expectations of a formal peace agreement.
Two days earlier, Washington had launched a naval blockade limiting shipping to and from Iranian ports, saying six vessels trading with Iran were turned back. Despite the escalation, prediction market data from Polymarket now assigns higher odds to a peace deal being signed by May, ahead of the current ceasefire’s expiry next Tuesday.
Vice President Vance said the administration was satisfied with the current stage of talks, while President Trump declared the conflict “nearly over,” reinforcing the perception that negotiations are on track.
Safe-haven metals lose ground
Gold and silver fell after touching multi-day highs overnight, as demand for traditional safe havens eased in response to rising equities and weaker oil prices.
The shift underscores a broader rotation away from assets that typically benefit from geopolitical stress toward those tied more closely to growth and risk-taking.
Bitcoin’s failed breakout triggers forced selling
Bitcoin briefly broke above the $75,000 mark earlier in the session but then reversed sharply, erasing the breakout and signaling renewed downside pressure.
The abrupt rejection at higher levels triggered a wave of forced selling in crypto derivatives. More than $135 million in leveraged bullish positions were liquidated within hours, as exchanges automatically closed positions to limit further losses during the price slide.
The deleveraging is now visible in derivatives pricing. Funding rates on perpetual futures, which represent the cost of holding leveraged long positions, have turned negative for the first time since early February. In this setup, traders positioned for price declines pay fees to those positioned for gains, indicating a short-term bearish tilt.
Some analysts note that such extreme positioning can also set the stage for a sharp rebound if sentiment flips and short sellers are forced to cover.
Question marks over bitcoin’s role and correlations
The current episode highlights uncertainty over bitcoin’s role in geopolitical regimes. Earlier in the conflict, bitcoin rallied about 12% as gold fell 10%, prompting debate over its potential as a geopolitical hedge.
Now, as tensions ease and capital rotates toward risk assets, traders are watching to see whether bitcoin’s historically tight correlation with major equity benchmarks, including the S&P 500, reasserts itself.
The failed move above $75,000 has created a clear technical resistance zone. Market participants are monitoring whether bitcoin can reclaim this level or whether an extended period below it signals a deeper correction.
Currency markets favor Australian dollar, pressure franc
In foreign exchange trading, the Australian dollar led major currencies from the Tokyo open, supported by risk-on sentiment, while the Swiss franc weakened, consistent with reduced demand for safe-haven assets.
The USD/JPY pair slipped again after failing to print a new high, hovering near support at 158.63. Despite the pullback, positioning remains broadly bullish, reflecting confidence in earlier breakouts and expectations of continued yen weakness.
Softer US inflation data, focus on Australia jobs
Recent US producer price data came in below expectations, with the Producer Price Index rising 0.5% for the month versus forecasts of 1.1%. The reading points to weaker inflation pressures but had limited immediate impact on the dollar, as geopolitical developments dominated trading decisions.
Traders now turn their attention to Australia’s unemployment figures due later in the day, which could influence expectations for Reserve Bank of Australia policy and add another driver for the Australian dollar.
Market narrative shifts toward de-escalation
Across asset classes, price action reflects a clear shift away from instruments that thrive on uncertainty and toward those that benefit from stability and growth.
This stands in contrast to the early stages of the conflict, when bitcoin’s surge and gold’s decline stirred debate about their respective roles in crisis periods. With talk of a peace accord now at the forefront, other macro drivers, including inflation data and rate expectations, may see a delayed or muted impact on prices until clarity on the US–Iran negotiations emerges.
Wondering how macro events shape crypto sentiment? Learn to read emotions driving price swings with our crypto market sentiment guide.
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