Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on April 19 that Tehran accepted the latest ceasefire to better present its demands, but stressed that a final agreement with the United States remains “far off.” He said recent negotiations have eased some misunderstandings yet failed to resolve deep mutual distrust.
Talks framed as “struggle” for national rights
Ghalibaf described the ongoing dialogue as a form of struggle in which Iran aims to advance and secure what it views as its national rights within an existing diplomatic framework.
He noted that some issues have been settled in the talks, but several key topics remain under discussion, leaving a significant distance to any comprehensive deal. Iran, he said, continues to hold firm to several “non‑negotiable” positions, though he did not specify which ones. Tehran’s stance, he added, is guided by a defensive strategy centered on protecting core national interests.
Limited transparency and shifting diplomatic channels
His comments come after months of direct and indirect contacts between Tehran and Washington, punctuated by intermittent ceasefires and renewed threats of escalation. Both sides have largely withheld details of the discussions, offering little clarity on concrete progress or a timetable for any potential agreement.
A recent round of talks in Islamabad on April 12 ended without a breakthrough. Following that failure, the United States threatened a full naval blockade of Iranian ports. In response, Ghalibaf warned that the Strait of Hormuz will not remain open if such a blockade proceeds, challenging claims that a lasting understanding over the waterway had been reached.
Market turmoil eases after ceasefire and reopening of Hormuz
Ghalibaf’s remarks follow a period of intense market turbulence tied to the conflict that began with coordinated airstrikes on February 28, 2026. The two‑week ceasefire announced around April 8, along with the temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, helped cool fears of an extended disruption to energy flows.
Wall Street’s main gauge of expected U.S. equity volatility, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), fell 44% in the three weeks ending April 17. That drop marked a rapid unwinding of market fear and coincided with improved access through the strait. The VIX hit a nine‑week low of 16.87 before edging back up to 17.94, signaling that the most acute panic has eased but uncertainty remains.
Global energy supply shock and economic risk
The conflict has already delivered one of the most severe energy shocks on record. The Strait of Hormuz, which handles nearly 20% of global oil consumption, was brought close to a standstill during the height of the crisis. As a result, global oil supply fell by 10.1 million barrels per day in March, the largest single‑month disruption ever recorded, sending crude prices above $100 per barrel.
The International Monetary Fund has warned that, although financial markets have so far absorbed the shock in an orderly way, the risks to global financial stability are elevated. The IMF projects slower global growth due to the conflict, which it estimates has cut global oil supply by 13% and strained related supply chains.
Flight to dollar, muted response in traditional havens
During the escalation, capital flows showed a clear preference for the U.S. dollar. The currency climbed to its highest levels in months as large market participants sought liquidity and perceived safety.
In contrast, gold’s behavior diverged from its usual role as a crisis haven. Its gains were limited and overshadowed by the strength of the dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields, highlighting a shift in how markets responded to this particular geopolitical shock.
Outlook: fragile calm amid unresolved core issues
Despite the recent easing in volatility and the partial restoration of shipping through Hormuz, the diplomatic outlook remains fragile. Ghalibaf’s insistence on non‑negotiable positions, combined with stalled talks and competing threats over maritime access, underlines the risk that tensions could flare again.
For now, traders are adjusting to a narrow window of calm, but pricing across oil, currencies, and volatility markets continues to reflect the possibility of renewed disruption if negotiations fail to move beyond their current deadlock.
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