Gold prices stabilized on Monday after an early slide, with the market underpinned by geopolitical risks and steady central bank buying, according to strategists Sim and Wong.
Price action and current levels
Spot gold fell to an intraday low of $4,645 before rebounding toward $4,720 during New York trading hours. The move came after a brief pullback, with the metal holding within a broader uptrend.
Sim and Wong said short‑term price swings remain closely tied to headlines on ceasefire negotiations and shifts in overall market risk sentiment.
Technical outlook: key support and resistance
On the technical front, the strategists highlight immediate support around $4,670. This level coincides with:
- the 21‑day moving average
- the 100‑day moving average
- the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
Upside resistance is seen near $4,850, aligning with the 50% retracement of the 2026 high‑to‑low range, followed by the 50‑day moving average around $4,915.
Despite the early session weakness, daily momentum indicators continue to show an upside bias. However, the Relative Strength Index is rising at a slower pace, suggesting some moderation in bullish momentum.
Structural support from central banks
Beyond short‑term trading flows, Sim and Wong point to structural drivers that remain in place. These include:
- ongoing central bank diversification into bullion
- gold’s role as a hedge against political and policy uncertainty
They note that while monthly purchase volumes can fluctuate, the longer‑term trend of accumulation remains intact.
Recent data from the World Gold Council support this view. Global central banks added more than 290 tonnes of gold to their reserves in the first quarter of 2026, extending a multi‑year buying trend. The People’s Bank of China has reportedly been the largest single buyer for seventeen consecutive months.
Divergence between official buying and ETF flows
In contrast to official sector demand, gold exchange‑traded funds backed by physical metal have seen net outflows of about 82 tonnes since the start of the year. This pattern suggests some shorter‑term market participants are taking profits or reallocating capital away from bullion‑linked products.
Macro backdrop: inflation and risk sentiment
The metal’s resilience also reflects ongoing concern over inflation. The latest United States Consumer Price Index showed a 3.4% year‑on‑year increase, a reading that continues to complicate expectations for monetary policy.
For those managing portfolios with significant exposure to more volatile assets, gold’s recent behavior remains a key barometer of risk appetite. A firming bullion price often precedes or accompanies a shift away from assets that are more sensitive to changes in economic sentiment.
Strategy: pullbacks seen as opportunities
Looking ahead, Sim and Wong expect short‑term direction to be driven mainly by developments in ceasefire talks and broader global sentiment.
They view near‑term pullbacks toward support zones such as $4,670 as more attractive entry points than chasing rallies at higher levels. In their view, adding exposure on dips offers a more disciplined approach for those seeking to use gold as a stabilizing element within broader holdings, rather than pursuing momentum during periods of elevated speculative interest.
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