The euro held near $1.1777 against the dollar in Asian trading on Friday, stabilizing after touching a weekly high of $1.1825. The currency pair paused after a two‑week advance, with traders reluctant to extend positions ahead of further news on U.S.–Iran diplomacy and the approaching ceasefire deadline.
Market snapshot: equities firm, dollar weaker on risk appetite
Futures linked to the S&P 500 were flat, after the index closed Thursday up 0.26% at 7,041. The U.S. Dollar Index traded around 98.25, slightly higher on the day but still on course for a second consecutive weekly decline.
U.S. equities have now erased all losses tied to the recent conflict, with the main index closing above the 7,000 mark for the first time this week. That recovery has underpinned broad risk appetite and reduced demand for the dollar as a safe haven, contributing to a 1.88% slide in the U.S. currency over the past month.
Geopolitics: ceasefire clock ticks as talks remain unscheduled
The market standstill comes as a fragile two‑week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, brokered by Pakistan on April 8, approaches its April 22 expiry. Key disagreements over uranium enrichment remain unresolved, and no date has been set for the next round of talks between Washington and Tehran.
President Donald Trump said Thursday that Iran was prepared to halt uranium enrichment and that negotiations were “very close” to completion. He added that U.S. military operations would continue if no deal was reached. Iranian officials have yet to publicly confirm those specific claims, leaving traders focused on tangible diplomatic progress rather than rhetoric.
European policy: Villeroy tempers talk of early rate hike
In Europe, Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau signaled that discussion of an April interest rate increase was premature, dampening expectations for a policy move at the European Central Bank’s April 30 meeting.
His comments aligned with current market pricing, which assigns roughly a 20% chance of a hike this month, while still implying two increases by year‑end. The cautious tone came as revised data showed Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.6% in March, revised higher on the back of energy costs partly linked to Middle East tensions.
Technical picture: euro maintains bullish bias above key support
Technically, the euro–dollar pair continues to show an upward bias. Spot remains comfortably above the 20‑day exponential moving average at 1.1673, a level that now acts as a key support area. The 14‑day Relative Strength Index hovers near 62, indicating solid upside momentum without yet flashing overbought conditions.
Support is seen around 1.1673. A clean break below that zone could open a move back toward the recent consolidation band in the mid‑1.15s. On the upside, immediate resistance stands at 1.1825, the April 16 peak. A sustained break above that level would expose the next resistance zone near 1.1929.
Outlook: path hinges on outcome of U.S.–Iran talks
Analysts note that as long as the euro holds above the short‑term moving average support, the broader uptrend remains intact. A confirmed diplomatic agreement before the ceasefire deadline could further pressure the dollar and support additional euro gains, while a breakdown in talks or renewed hostilities could quickly reverse recent risk‑on sentiment and strengthen the U.S. currency.
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