The euro slipped against the US dollar after failing to clear resistance near 1.1825, with EUR/USD retreating from 1.1823 to 1.1766 and moving into a tight consolidation band, according to a market note from United Overseas Bank analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann.
Short-term range trade, but medium-term bias still higher
The pair is expected to trade sideways in the near term, with Leang and Lee projecting intraday fluctuations between 1.1760 and 1.1805. They see the broader one-to-three-week bias still tilted to the upside, with scope for a move toward 1.1850.
However, the analysts stressed that a break below 1.1735 would signal that the recent upward phase has ended and would invalidate expectations for further euro strength. That support level remains unchanged from previous sessions and is viewed as the key floor for the medium-term constructive outlook.
Momentum fades after rejection near 1.1825
Price momentum has weakened since EUR/USD briefly touched 1.1823, the analysts said, pointing to a near-term consolidation after the pair was unable to sustain gains above the 1.1825 resistance area. The failure to establish a foothold above that zone suggests buying interest is not strong enough for now to drive a fresh leg higher.
Recent intraday reversals underscore the lack of strong directional conviction, with the market oscillating within a narrow range instead of trending.
US inflation and jobs data support the dollar
Macro data from the United States is helping to underpin the dollar. The annual inflation rate climbed to 3.3% in March from 2.4% in February, the highest reading since May 2024. Persistent inflation pressure complicates the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook and reduces the likelihood of an imminent move toward easier monetary conditions.
At the same time, the US labor market remains firm. Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 fell to 207,000, down 11,000 from the previous week. The combination of strong employment and elevated inflation argues against a near-term dovish shift by the Fed, creating a headwind for sustained gains in EUR/USD.
Eurozone inflation edges higher but sentiment weakens
In the Eurozone, inflation has also picked up, with the March annual rate revised up to 2.6% from 1.9% in February. While this points to some price pressure within the bloc, the growth outlook appears less supportive.
Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index dropped sharply to -0.5 in March from 58.3 in February, defying expectations and signaling a notable deterioration in confidence in the Eurozone’s largest economy.
Key levels define outlook for traders
Against this backdrop, analysts highlight the importance of clearly defined technical levels. The 1.1735 area is seen as the pivotal support for the euro’s positive medium-term setup. A decisive break below that level would suggest the recent upward bias has run its course and could open the way for a more durable downside phase.
On the topside, a strong and sustained move above 1.1850 would be needed to re-establish bullish control and signal that the prior uptrend is resuming, shifting attention back to higher resistance levels beyond the recent 1.1825 cap.
Want deeper macro insight behind EUR–USD moves? Explore how fiscal policy shapes currency and crypto markets today.
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