The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the National Hockey League (NHL) have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to share information and coordinate efforts to protect the integrity of professional hockey and related event contracts, the agencies said Thursday. The agreement marks a significant expansion of cooperation between the federal derivatives regulator and major U.S. sports leagues as sports-based prediction markets grow rapidly nationwide.
Focus on market integrity in professional hockey
Under the memorandum, the CFTC and NHL will establish direct communication channels to flag and address potential risks tied to trading activity around professional hockey events.
The move follows similar engagements between the CFTC and other major leagues, including a cooperation agreement with Major League Baseball (MLB) signed in March, aimed at preventing manipulation of sporting events through prediction platforms.
These arrangements are intended to give the regulator better access to league data and intelligence, strengthening its ability to detect misconduct such as insider trading based on non-public injury or lineup information.
Prediction markets surge amid regulatory uncertainty
Event-based trading platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have seen volumes accelerate, particularly following the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Activity has spread across contracts linked to sports, politics, and other real-world events, intensifying questions over how these products fit within federal oversight.
In April 2026, total trading volume across major prediction platforms climbed to $29.8 billion. Kalshi handled $14.8 billion that month, surpassing Polymarket’s $10.2 billion. Kalshi’s March 2026 volume of more than $10.4 billion represents an increase of over 100 times from the roughly $100 million per month it recorded in early 2024.
Sports-linked contracts now account for the bulk of trading on some venues, driving the CFTC’s push for closer ties with leagues like the NHL and MLB.
Shift in CFTC strategy under Chair Michael Selig
CFTC Chair Michael Selig has adopted a different approach to event-based contracts than his predecessor, former Chair Rostin Behnam.
Under Behnam, the commission proposed a rule that would have restricted contracts tied to areas such as gaming, terrorism, and war on the grounds that they could be contrary to the public interest. That proposal was withdrawn earlier this year.
Instead, under Selig the CFTC has issued an advanced notice of proposed rulemaking to collect public feedback on how exchanges should list and manage prediction market contracts. The goal is to develop a clearer framework for determining when these products fall within regulated derivatives markets.
Selig has argued that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over outcome-based trading, maintaining that these instruments are financial products distinct from traditional gambling. He has publicly described prediction markets and sportsbooks as separate things, portraying the former as venues for earning returns rather than entertainment platforms where consistently successful participants may be limited or barred.
Escalating federal–state conflict over jurisdiction
That stance has put the CFTC on a collision course with several states that claim their gambling laws apply to certain prediction markets.
The commission has launched legal actions involving Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut, and New York to reinforce its authority and prevent what it calls a patchwork of conflicting rules that could fracture national markets.
Most recently, the CFTC sued Minnesota to block a state law scheduled to take effect on August 1, 2026, which would criminalize the operation of prediction markets. Federal courts have so far tended to side with the commission, including a preliminary injunction halting Arizona’s enforcement efforts, but state-level resistance remains strong.
The conflict has drawn scrutiny in Washington. At a Senate Commerce Committee hearing this week, some lawmakers questioned whether the CFTC is the right body to oversee products that closely resemble sports betting and floated legislative proposals to constrain such markets.
Implications for market participants
For traders, the immediate impact is a rising level of legal and regulatory uncertainty. The status of participating in event-based markets could diverge sharply by state in the coming years, even as federal courts continue to weigh in on jurisdictional disputes.
The CFTC’s alliances with leagues such as the NHL and MLB signal that event contracts will be treated more like regulated financial instruments than casual wagers. With deeper access to league data, the regulator is expected to deploy more targeted surveillance and bring tougher enforcement actions against misuse of confidential information, including insider trading linked to non-public injury or roster details.
Taken together, the new memorandum with the NHL, the broader legal battles with states, and the agency’s rulemaking efforts underscore the commission’s push to cement a unified federal framework for prediction markets as they become more intertwined with professional sports and other real-world events.
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