Bitcoin traded just below $77,000 on Thursday, with derivatives data signaling a potential price swing of 5% or more in the near term. Tight ranges, heavy leverage and clustered orders at key levels are building expectations for a decisive breakout.
Trading range tightens around key levels
Market watcher Daan Crypto Trades reported concentrated trading clusters near $78,000 and between $76,500 and $77,000. This has kept bitcoin in a narrow band for several days, a pattern that often precedes a sharp move in either direction.
Data from analytics platforms showed that most liquidations over the past 24 hours hit short positions as prices edged higher. Open interest fell by more than 12,000 contracts, suggesting that traders betting against further gains were forced out as the market moved up.
Technical backdrop remains broadly bullish
Analyst Cryptic Trades said support around $74,000 has held despite recent pullbacks, leaving the broader technical structure tilted to the upside. With the spot price stabilizing, selling pressure from downside hedges appears to be easing.
Even so, sentiment has cooled from earlier in the month. The push toward $80,000 in early May triggered the fastest growth in perpetual futures open interest seen in 2026, but the subsequent retreat to the $76,000 area led to heavy long liquidations and a reset in positioning.
Derivatives and fund flows show cooling demand
The recent derivatives shakeout has been mirrored in institutional product flows. U.S. spot exchange-traded funds logged more than $1 billion in net outflows during the week of May 11–15, the largest weekly withdrawal since February. The outflows signal a pause in the strong institutional demand that had underpinned bitcoin prices for much of the year.
At the same time, the macro backdrop has turned less supportive. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has climbed to 4.61%, making risk-free government debt more attractive relative to non-yielding assets such as bitcoin. Elevated yields tend to draw capital toward bonds and away from markets viewed as higher risk.
Oil, bonds and geopolitics shape risk appetite
Broader risk assets remain under pressure as energy and bond markets react to shifting geopolitical signals from the Middle East. West Texas Intermediate crude traded above $100 per barrel on Thursday, with traders weighing reports on U.S.–Iran peace efforts against renewed tension over traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
On Wednesday, comments from U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting progress in talks with Tehran briefly pushed oil prices and bond yields lower. Analysts say further diplomatic advances could drive yields down globally, including in Japan, and potentially support risk-oriented assets such as equities and digital currencies.
Strait of Hormuz and inflation expectations in focus
Oil prices remain highly sensitive to conflicting headlines. While talks are said to be in their “final stages,” Tehran has hardened its stance on its uranium stockpile, adding uncertainty for both energy and financial markets.
A durable agreement that secures transit through the Strait of Hormuz would likely put sustained downward pressure on energy prices. Lower oil costs could ease inflation concerns that have helped keep bond yields elevated. In that scenario, some capital currently parked in dollar assets and high-yielding government bonds may rotate back into markets that have been weighed down by the stronger dollar and rising rates, potentially improving conditions for bitcoin and other risk assets.
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