Bitcoin is showing signs of repeating a March 2022-style downturn, with price momentum fading at a key technical barrier and sentiment deteriorating to “extremely bearish,” according to on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant.
As of press time, bitcoin was trading around $77,320, up 0.6% over the past 24 hours but well below last week’s local high near $82,400, where the rally stalled at the 200-day moving average before retreating toward $76,000.
200-day moving average caps rebound
CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno said the latest price action closely tracks bitcoin’s behavior in the 2022 bear market.
Back then, bitcoin climbed about 43% off its lows, only to hit resistance at the 200-day moving average and reverse lower. In the current cycle, Moreno noted, the coin has advanced roughly 37% from its April 2026 bottom before failing at the same long-term trend line.
Moreno said that in downturns, the 200-day moving average often separates temporary rebounds from deeper declines. Failure to close decisively above that level, he added, typically signals that the broader bearish structure remains intact.
Demand shifts into contraction
On-chain data indicates that demand is now cooling across both derivatives and spot markets.
CryptoQuant reported that speculative activity in perpetual futures, which helped drive the spring rally, began to fade after bitcoin briefly topped $82,000. Many leveraged long positions have since been unwound. At the same time, spot demand has weakened more sharply, pointing to a broader pullback in buying interest.
U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds have flipped to net selling, offloading roughly 4,000 bitcoin on a net basis after accumulating about 64,000 coins earlier in May. The Coinbase price premium has stayed negative, suggesting muted engagement from both institutional and retail buyers in the U.S. market.
Sentiment drops to “extremely bearish”
CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index has fallen from 40 to 20, moving back into what the firm classifies as “extremely bearish” territory. These readings resemble those seen between February and March 2026, when bitcoin traded in the $60,000–$66,000 range.
Historically, similar conditions have often preceded either further price declines or extended periods of sideways consolidation, rather than the start of a sustained uptrend.
Key on-chain support near $70,000
Moreno highlighted $70,000 as a critical on-chain support zone, derived from realized price data. This metric, which reflects the average on-chain acquisition cost, has acted as a pivot during several market phases in 2025 and 2026.
Around that level, traders as a group would hold little to no unrealized profit. That dynamic can temporarily ease selling pressure, as fewer holders are sitting on large gains, potentially helping stabilize prices if they fall that far.
In the nearer term, market watchers are focused on the $76,000 area, which aligns with the 50-day moving average and serves as immediate technical support. A sustained break below that level could open the way for a deeper test of the $70,000 zone.
Macro headwinds and ETF outflows
The weakening bitcoin trend is unfolding against a difficult macro backdrop for risk assets.
Recent data showed the U.S. Consumer Price Index accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year, pushing Treasury yields higher and dampening expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. Higher yields typically weigh on speculative assets by making safer income streams more attractive.
That shift is visible in flows to U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs. Over the past seven trading sessions, outflows have approached $2 billion. The week ending May 15 alone saw more than $1 billion in net redemptions, breaking a six-week streak of positive inflows and signaling a clear risk-off move among large market participants.
Profit-taking accelerates but no sign of euphoria
On-chain metrics show that profit realization has picked up as prices neared resistance. Realized profits recently jumped to their highest levels since December 2025, indicating that holders who accumulated at lower prices are increasingly selling into strength and adding to overhead supply.
However, not all indicators resemble a classic market top. The MVRV Z-Score, which compares market value to realized value, remains near 1 — far below the readings of 6 or higher that have historically coincided with major cycle peaks. That suggests that, despite the recent froth, the market has not reached the kind of broad-based euphoria seen at previous tops.
Traders are now watching how bitcoin behaves around the $76,000 and $70,000 levels to gauge whether the current pullback develops into a deeper correction akin to 2022, or stabilizes into a prolonged consolidation phase.
Worried this downturn could deepen? Learn how to protect positions and manage risk with our guide on avoiding liquidation.
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