Bitcoin traded above $76,000 on Tuesday, extending April’s rebound as renewed spot market demand outweighed weekend selling pressure. Over the past 15 days, net spot volume increased by about $517 million, signaling sustained buying interest that helped drive the latest move higher.
Key price levels and market conditions
The cryptocurrency hovered just below $77,000 after recovering earlier losses, with perpetual futures funding rates slightly negative at around -0.003%. A modest 0.05 premium on major U.S. venues has accompanied a roughly 12% recovery in April, pointing to moderate but steady demand on regulated platforms.
Market data showed that aggregated cumulative volume delta — a measure of net aggressive buying versus selling — climbed from $55 million on April 17 to $517 million, while combined spot and futures activity exceeded $8.5 billion.
Technical backdrop turns more constructive
On Monday, Bitcoin printed a bullish engulfing candle, fully reversing Sunday’s 2.5% decline and pushing back above its 100-day exponential moving average. It was the first retest of that moving average in more than four months, a development technicians view as reinforcing a near-term upward bias.
The pattern suggests that recent selling pressure was absorbed by fresh buyers, in line with continued capital inflows into newly regulated exchange-traded products.
Leveraged positioning defines support and resistance
Roughly $2.8 billion in leveraged long positions are concentrated between $73,000 and $75,000, creating a near-term support band where dips may prompt defensive buying to avoid liquidations.
Above current prices, about $1.8 billion in short liquidations are stacked between $76,000 and $78,000, forming a resistance zone. A decisive break through the upper end of that range could trigger a wave of forced short cover buying, potentially accelerating any move higher.
ETF flows highlight sustained demand
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the U.S. drew close to $1 billion in net inflows last week, the strongest weekly intake since mid-January. These products recorded four consecutive days of positive flows heading into April 17, bringing in about $664 million on that day alone.
BlackRock’s IBIT fund led the pack, absorbing roughly $906 million over the week, underscoring ongoing institutional and professional demand via regulated vehicles.
Analyst outlook and potential price targets
Market analyst Michaël van de Poppe said the latest pullback fit the pattern of typical weekend weakness followed by renewed demand as regular trading resumed. Citing last week’s ETF inflows and firm spot activity, he projected potential upside toward the $85,000–$88,000 range in May if current conditions persist.
He framed that view within a longer-term context, noting that historically, deep corrections have often been followed by significant recoveries over the subsequent three to six months. If that pattern were to repeat, his analysis leaves room for a move toward $100,000 by the third quarter of 2026.
Upcoming events and potential volatility drivers
Attention is turning to several near-term catalysts that could influence price and volatility:
- Bitcoin options expiry, April 24: A major options expiry is approaching, with the estimated “max pain” level — where the largest number of options expire worthless — near $71,000. Markets often gravitate toward such levels into expiry, potentially introducing choppy price action.
- Federal Reserve policy meeting, April 28–29: The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting on U.S. interest rates and monetary policy could impact broader risk sentiment, including crypto assets, depending on how guidance on inflation and growth evolves.
- Geopolitical developments: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the next round of peace talks between the U.S. and Iran, remain an additional source of uncertainty that could influence risk appetite across global markets.
For now, Bitcoin’s structure remains supported by robust spot demand, constructive technical signals, and firm ETF inflows, with leveraged positioning defining a relatively tight band of support below and potential squeeze dynamics above current prices.
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