Bitcoin has climbed about 12% since late February, when airstrikes in the Middle East began, far outpacing a 1% drop in the S&P 500 and a 10% slide in gold, according to data from asset manager Bitwise. The firm links the move to intensifying geopolitical stress and a shift in global capital flows toward politically neutral assets.
As of April 13, bitcoin traded around $74,000. Over the last 24 hours, it briefly touched $75,800 on several exchanges, coinciding with reports of expanded naval patrols in the Strait of Hormuz and fresh signs of inflation pressure in the United States.
Bitwise: bitcoin seen as neutral asset in a fractured system
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan and Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen said bitcoin’s resilience during the latest conflict reflects growing demand for assets that sit outside traditional monetary blocs.
They argue that as global monetary and payment systems become more fragmented, bitcoin is increasingly being used both as a store of value and as a medium for cross-border settlement.
The firm characterizes bitcoin as “two bets in one”:
- a direct challenge to gold’s role as a long-term store of wealth
- a potential tool for international trade settlement as more countries look for ways around dollar-based networks
Sanctions and payment rerouting weaken dollar dominance
Bitwise traces the current shift back to 2022, when Russia was excluded from the SWIFT banking network. That move pushed some trade activity toward Chinese payment systems and other alternatives, slowly eroding the dominance of dollar-based transactions and creating room for new settlement channels.
Recent reports that Iran may accept bitcoin for oil-related payments underscore that trend, the analysis notes. Although sanctions remain in place and blockchain activity is transparent by design, such discussions signal a greater willingness by some states to experiment with decentralized payment infrastructure.
A joint statement issued today by G7 finance ministers highlights the same pressures from another angle. The ministers announced a formal review of secondary sanctions targeting entities that use non-traditional payment rails for commodity transactions, effectively acknowledging that the architecture of global finance is being contested and diversified.
Inflation data adds a domestic tailwind
On the macroeconomic front, fresh U.S. Producer Price Index data released this morning showed a 0.6% month-on-month increase, surprising to the upside and stoking renewed inflation concerns.
Bitwise argues that this combination of external geopolitical risk and internal economic pressure is pushing more capital toward assets perceived as hedges against both conflict-driven disruption and currency debasement.
Market structure signals growing institutional use
Market data show that the latest move is accompanied by rising activity in both spot and derivatives markets:
- spot trading volumes on major exchanges have risen 38% since the start of April
- open interest in perpetual futures has reached a record $39 billion, according to Coinglass
These figures point to increased participation by larger, more sophisticated market participants, who appear to be positioning for sustained volatility and using derivatives to manage exposure.
At the same time, bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has dropped to 0.12, down from a 2025 average of 0.65. This sharp decoupling from high-growth technology equities suggests the asset is currently trading less like a speculative tech proxy and more like a macro and geopolitical hedge.
Bitcoin framed as a “call option” on a new settlement layer
Bitwise describes bitcoin’s emerging role using an options analogy: as more countries and corporations test it for settlement and as geopolitical uncertainty deepens, the “call option” on its wider adoption becomes more valuable.
The firm contends that two key conditions are now in place:
- rising instability in international finance and sanctions policy
- early but growing use of bitcoin in practical, if still limited, settlement contexts
Together, these could entrench bitcoin’s structural role as a crisis asset and alternative payment rail, especially in periods of turbulence.
Long-term scenarios: from speculation to hedge against disorder
In long-term models, Bitwise suggests bitcoin could move beyond short-term speculative cycles and serve as a hedge against broader geopolitical and financial disorder.
Under scenarios where bitcoin captures a share of global transaction flows in addition to its store-of-value function, the firm describes $1 million per coin as a potential baseline outcome rather than a maximum upside case, assuming continued adoption and deepening integration into global settlement.
For now, the asset’s latest rally—driven by conflict in the Middle East, tightening sanctions regimes, and renewed inflation worries—offers a live test of that thesis as traders reassess how they price risk across traditional and alternative financial systems.
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