Bitcoin fell below $77,000 on Friday as US stocks opened at or near record highs, underscoring a growing divergence between digital assets and traditional equity markets.
Equities extend gains while bitcoin weakens
During early Wall Street trading, BTC/USD declined nearly 1.2%, slipping under the $77,000 mark. At the same time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average pushed into record territory, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 moved close to their own peak levels.
The pattern continues a week-long trend: persistent strength in US equities set against soft demand and price pressure in major cryptocurrencies.
Stock market signals point to further upside
Mosaic Asset Company said broader stock market conditions may support additional gains. The firm cited an “oversold breadth condition” alongside a bullish signal from the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator applied to stocks trading above their 20-day simple moving average.
According to Mosaic, this backdrop gives room for more individual names to catch up with the rally already visible in the main indices.
Coinbase premium hits monthly low
In contrast, bitcoin demand on US platforms appears subdued. The Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the price difference between Coinbase and Binance, has hovered near its lowest level this month. On Friday it touched -0.098, indicating that bitcoin on Coinbase is trading at a discount to Binance.
Data from CryptoQuant show Binance-based traders buying at a faster pace, with the negative premium widening in recent sessions. For 11 straight days, the index has remained below zero, pointing to increased selling pressure from US-based institutional desks and professional traders.
This pressure lines up with recent outflows from US spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which have seen about $1.3 billion in withdrawals over four consecutive trading days since May 14.
Large holders seen accumulating amid US selling
Despite the negative premium, some see signs of accumulation. Market watcher “CW” noted that similar negative readings in the past often appeared during phases when large holders quietly increased their exposure.
Current flows suggest a tug of war: large holders accumulating on one side, while significant distribution continues from professional traders active on Coinbase and from US spot ETFs on the other.
Mixed technical signals cloud outlook
Analysts are split on what comes next. Julio Moreno of CryptoQuant highlighted that bitcoin’s recent 37% rise from April lows, followed by rejection near $82,400, looks similar to a relief rally during the March 2022 bear market that preceded a deeper downturn.
Adding to the cautious tone, miners are still selling portions of their reserves, a sign they may not yet be confident that a durable bottom is in place.
However, on-chain data paints a different picture from past cycle highs. The MVRV Z-Score, a metric that has historically risen above 6 at major market tops, currently sits near 1. That is far below the extreme readings seen during the 2017 and 2021 peaks, suggesting the market is not in the kind of euphoric phase that has historically preceded major reversals.
Tight trading range sets near-term levels
For now, bitcoin is trading in a narrow band between roughly $76,000 and $78,500. Analysts see a decisive break on either side of this range as key for the short-term direction.
A drop below support at around $76,050 could open a move toward $74,500. On the upside, a sustained push above current resistance would be needed to bring the $82,000 area back into focus.
Structural supply squeeze remains in the background
Behind the day-to-day volatility, a structural supply constraint continues to shape the market. April’s block reward halving cut new bitcoin issuance to about 450 coins per day.
Earlier in May, ETF-related demand alone was absorbing an estimated 4,500–5,000 BTC daily, implying a demand-to-new-supply ratio of roughly 10-to-1. That imbalance remains a key longer-term factor, even as near-term price action is dominated by US selling, shifting exchange premiums, and conflicting technical signals.
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