Bitcoin slid to its lowest level in more than two weeks on Saturday, breaking below a key psychological level as rising U.S. bond yields, elevated oil prices, and Middle East tensions pressured risk assets.
Price hits two-week low and key levels in focus
Bitcoin dropped to $77,614, its weakest reading since May 1, after failing to hold above the $80,000 area that many trading desks had been watching.
Technical charts now show nearby support around $76,979, with a more significant level near $75,207. Independent analyst Coleman projects the next local low close to $75,000 following a retest of prior support.
Liquidity mapping from analyst Daan highlights a dense cluster of orders near $71,000 below current prices, suggesting that a break of the mid-$70,000 zone could trigger a sharper move as the market seeks new equilibrium.
Bond yields and policy expectations hit non-yielding assets
The slide in bitcoin comes alongside a rapid shift in the interest rate outlook. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has climbed above 4.55%, its highest level in nearly a year, as recent inflation data has eroded expectations for rate cuts and revived the prospect of a further hike before the end of 2026.
Futures markets now assign roughly a 44% probability to an additional rate increase by December. Higher yields on government bonds raise the appeal of risk-free returns and diminish appetite for non-yielding assets such as bitcoin among large capital allocators.
Mosaic Asset Company notes that overlapping stress factors — lingering supply disruptions from past trade frictions, conflict-driven pressure on energy markets, and sizable federal deficits — are increasing the odds of a renewed inflation wave similar to mid-2022. That scenario keeps yields elevated and tightens financial conditions for risk assets.
Hormuz tensions support oil, muddle inflation outlook
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain a key backdrop. The ongoing U.S.-Iran dispute is disrupting trade routes, with Tehran moving ahead on a transit toll in the Strait of Hormuz and reportedly restricting American vessel traffic.
The narrow waterway, a critical channel for global oil shipments, has helped push crude prices higher. West Texas Intermediate crude finished the week above $100 per barrel, reinforcing inflation concerns and feeding into the move higher in bond yields.
However, a recent statement from the U.S. Secretary of State suggesting the Strait of Hormuz will “open” has introduced a new layer of uncertainty. Any easing of transit constraints could relieve some upward pressure on energy prices, complicating what had looked like a straightforward story of a prolonged supply shock affecting roughly one fifth of the world’s oil flow.
Internal market stress: liquidations and ETF outflows
The latest leg down in bitcoin was magnified by internal market mechanics. Around $500 million in leveraged long positions were liquidated in a single sweep as the macro shock undermined support levels, triggering forced selling across derivatives platforms.
At the same time, spot exchange-traded funds saw about $1 billion in net outflows over the past week, ending a six-week run of inflows. The reversal signals cooling demand from large funds and adds to the selling pressure.
Traders split on bear trap risk and downside targets
Despite the negative backdrop, some desks argue the current setup could be forming a “bear trap.” They point to persistently negative funding rates in perpetual futures — with short sellers paying a premium to hold their positions for more than three months — and a buildup in short exposure that could fuel a sharp rebound if prices stabilize.
Others remain focused on the downside. Weakness in support around $80,000 has already opened the path toward the mid-$70,000 area. If bitcoin fails to hold near $76,979 and then $75,207, attention is likely to shift quickly toward the $71,000 liquidity pocket highlighted by Daan, where concentrated orders could define the next major inflection point.
For now, the market sits at the intersection of external macro pressures and stretched internal positioning, with traders weighing whether the latest selloff marks the start of a deeper correction or the prelude to a violent short-covering rally.
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