Today: CLARITY Passes Senate as Bitcoin ETFs lose $635M

The CLARITY Act cleared the Senate Banking Committee in a 15-9 bipartisan vote, while President Trump launched the first state visit to China by a US president since 2017. However, US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $635 million in net outflows the previous trading session. The combination of policy catalysts and institutional capital withdrawal kept crypto markets in a tight trading range despite multiple bullish headlines.

Key data points (as of market close, 14 May 2026)

• Bitcoin (BTC): $79,277, down 1.49% on the day, down 2.28% on the week

• Ethereum (ETH): $2,250, down 2.10% on the day

• Solana (SOL): $90, down 5.60% on the day

• Global crypto market capitalization: $2.65 trillion, down 1.34% on the day

• US spot Bitcoin ETF net outflow (13 May): $635 million, the largest single day outflow since 29 January

 

Policy: CLARITY Act clears critical procedural hurdle

Senate Banking Committee advances bill by 15-9 margin

The US Senate Banking Committee held its markup hearing on the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act on 14 May, ultimately voting 15 to 9 in favor, sending the bill to the full Senate for consideration.

Vote breakdown:

• All 13 Republican members voted in support

• Two Democratic senators joined the majority: Senator Ruben Gallego (Arizona) and Senator Angela Alsobrooks (Maryland)

• Ranking Member Senator Elizabeth Warren submitted more than 40 amendments during the procedural phase, none of which were adopted

• Chairman Tim Scott admitted a set of previously ruled-out amendments shortly before the final vote, which secured bipartisan consensus

Legislative path forward:

• Reconciliation with the Senate Agriculture Committee version

• Senate floor vote requiring 60 votes, including at least seven Democratic senators

• Reconciliation with the House version (passed 294-134 in July 2025)

• Presidential signature

The White House has set 4 July as the target signing date. Polymarket has raised the probability of CLARITY Act passage in 2026 from 62% to 73%. The compromise on stablecoin yield reached between Senator Tillis and Senator Alsobrooks has been incorporated into the official text, prohibiting yield purely on stablecoin holdings while permitting rewards tied to activity participation.

Outstanding issues:

• The ethics provision remains unresolved. Senator Gallego has stated his final floor vote will be contingent on resolution of this issue

• Banking industry associations maintain concerns regarding deposit flight risk

• The Van Hollen ethics amendment is the only Democratic proposal with cross-party support

Trump-Xi summit: continuity over breakthrough

President Trump held bilateral talks with President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on the morning of 14 May. The meeting lasted two hours and fifteen minutes, exceeding scheduled time by 40 minutes. This was the first state visit to China by a US president since 2017.

Confirmed substantive outcomes:

• Both sides agreed to establish a "Board of Trade" to manage bilateral economic relations

• China confirmed an order for 200 Boeing commercial aircraft, the first large scale aircraft purchase from the US in nearly a decade

• China to expand purchases of US soybeans, beef, poultry, and energy products including liquefied natural gas

• Both sides initiated further negotiations on tariff reductions covering approximately $30 billion in non-national security related goods

• Joint statement: "Iran cannot be allowed to possess nuclear weapons"; "the Strait of Hormuz must remain open"

• President Xi expressed opposition to militarization of the Strait of Hormuz and indicated willingness to increase purchases of American oil to reduce China's dependence on the strait

• President Trump invited President Xi to visit the White House on 24 September

Topics without breakthrough:

• No comprehensive trade agreement was reached

• No relaxation of semiconductor export controls

• The $1.4 billion arms sale package to Taiwan was deferred but not canceled

• President Xi described Taiwan as "the most important issue in China-US relations" and warned that "mishandling the matter could lead to conflict between the two nations"

 

Institutional capital: ETFs record largest single day outflow of 2026

13 May data: $635 million net outflow

According to SoSoValue data, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $635 million in net outflows on 13 May, the largest single day withdrawal since 29 January.

Major outflow breakdown:

Structural observations:

• IBIT recorded its first outflow of this magnitude since its January 2024 launch, ending a 20 day consecutive inflow streak

• US spot Bitcoin ETFs have posted five consecutive days of net outflows totaling $1.26 billion, erasing approximately 37% of the six week cumulative inflow of $3.4 billion

• Morgan Stanley's MSBT remained the only fund without an outflow. Since launching on 8 April, it has accumulated approximately $256 million in net inflows without a single outflow day

• Ethereum spot ETFs recorded $36.3 million in net outflows the same day, with BlackRock ETHA leading at $21.1 million

On chain data: recovery not yet confirmed

Glassnode data indicates:

• Daily realized loss remains elevated at $479 million, which analysts note must fall to approximately $200 million to confirm structural recovery

• 30 day Realized Cap Net Position Change stands at $2.8 billion, only 28% of the $10 billion threshold seen at prior bull market inflections

• Corporate Bitcoin purchases declined 80% month over month, with major corporate buyers outside Strategy effectively absent

• The Coinbase Premium Index remains in negative territory, reflecting weak domestic US demand

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues accumulation

Strategy purchased approximately 2,543 BTC on 14 May (2,110 BTC per alternative data source) funded through the STRC perpetual preferred stock program, bringing total holdings to approximately 820,000 BTC.

The company purchased approximately 5,100 BTC during the week, funded by the $206 million raised on 11 May through STRC issuance. The average holding cost stands at $75,540, providing approximately $4,300 of cushion to the current BTC price.

Financial structure considerations:

• Preferred stock liabilities approaching the $28.3 billion ceiling

• $8.2 billion in convertible debt maturing from September 2027

• Cash reserves of $2.25 billion

• MSTR EV based mNAV multiple of 1.24x, materially compressed from the earlier 2-3x range

 

Price action: $80,000 level transitions from support to resistance

Daily candle performance

• Open: $80,477

• Day's high: $81,275 (briefly tested $82,000 during CLARITY Act vote period)

• Day's low: $78,725

• Close: $79,277, down 1.49%

Key technical levels

Resistance:

• $80,000 (psychological level, now flipped to resistance)

• $81,964 (200 day EMA and 0.705 Fibonacci retracement confluence)

• $84,181 (0.786 Fibonacci retracement)

• $86,900 (Glassnode identified cost basis of November 2025 - February 2026 accumulators)

Support:

• $79,126 (20 day EMA)

• $76,745 (50 day EMA)

• $75,800 (April breakout zone)

• $71,500 (prior major base)

Derivatives and sentiment data

• 24 hour aggregate liquidations: $370 million, with long liquidations accounting for 84.0% ($311 million long, $59 million short)

• BTC futures open interest increased marginally by 0.28% over 24 hours

• Crypto Fear and Greed Index: 47 (down from 52 on 12 May)

• Approximately $2.6 billion in negative gamma positioning clustered near $82,000, creating a short term "gamma trap" structure

• Wintermute analysis indicates the recent BTC break above $80,000 was driven primarily by short covering with spot volume at a two year low

CryptoQuant research highlights a structural similarity between the current pattern and March 2022, when BTC similarly rallied 37% before being rejected at the 200 day moving average and entering a deeper downtrend. Current indicators including 17.7% unrealized profit margins and emerging short term holder distribution echo the March 2022 setup.

 

Traditional financial markets: equities at records, oil retreats

US traditional market performance on 14 May:

• S&P 500: gained 0.58% to a record close of 7,444.25

• Nasdaq Composite: gained 1.20% to a record close of 26,402.34

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: declined 67.36 points (-0.14%) to 49,693.20

• WTI crude oil: retreated from $102 toward $100, reflecting the suppressive effect of the joint statement on the Strait of Hormuz

• US Dollar Index: weakened modestly following the conclusion of the Trump-Xi summit

• 10 Year US Treasury yield: held near 4.39%

Divergence between risk appetite and crypto assets: Traditional risk assets reached new all time highs while crypto remained under pressure. Analysts attribute this divergence primarily to factors internal to the crypto market - hot CPI and PPI prints, hawkish Fed expectations, ETF capital withdrawal, and unconfirmed on chain recovery - rather than a reversal in broader risk sentiment.

 

Industry developments

Moscow Exchange launches institutional XRP index

The Moscow Exchange (MOEX) officially launched the MOEXXRP institutional grade index on 13 May, tracking the XRP/USDT trading pair using weighted pricing data with 15 second updates during trading hours. Similar indices for SOL, BNB, and TRON were launched simultaneously. Beginning 14 May, qualified investors may trade cash settled futures on XRP, SOL, and TRX.

The development reflects Russia's institutional, compliance oriented approach to crypto market integration. This launch follows the earlier rollout of Bitcoin and Ethereum benchmarks on the same exchange.

Kraken replaces LayerZero with Chainlink CCIP

Kraken announced it will adopt Chainlink's Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP) in place of LayerZero for cross chain bridging infrastructure. Following KelpDAO's earlier transition, Kraken becomes another major crypto institution to publicly adopt Chainlink. Cross chain security standards are accelerating their consolidation.

Strive announces SATA as first US listed security to pay daily cash dividends

Strive Asset Management announced that SATA will become the first publicly listed security in the United States to pay daily cash dividends, introducing a new model for BTC yield tokenization.

Cerebras prices IPO at $5.5 billion valuation

AI chip manufacturer Cerebras completed its initial public offering this week at a $5.5 billion valuation. CoinDesk analysis suggests the combined capital requirements of upcoming IPOs from OpenAI, SpaceX, and Cerebras may exert capital diversion pressure on crypto markets over the medium term.

Bullish reports first quarter revenue miss

Crypto exchange Bullish reported first quarter results below market expectations, reflecting broader slowdown in trading activity.

 

Market outlook

Key dates ahead

Key indicators to monitor

• Whether US spot Bitcoin ETF outflows reverse and IBIT daily flows return to positive territory

• Whether Glassnode's daily realized loss declines from $479 million toward the $200 million baseline

• Warsh's first public policy statements following his confirmation

• Implementation progress of China's expanded US energy purchases

• Whether BTC can reclaim the $80,000 psychological level and the $82,228 200 day moving average

Selected analyst views

• Bitfinex / AdLunam: Expect a near term rebound to the $82,000 - $84,000 range followed by a "neutralization phase". Current structure characterized as "incomplete capitulation"

• Glassnode: On chain recovery signals are improving, but daily realized losses of $479 million remain materially above the $200 million baseline associated with prior calm periods

• Wintermute: The break above $80,000 was driven by short covering rather than confirmed spot demand. A short squeeze and a bull market are distinct phenomena

• CryptoQuant: The current setup parallels March 2022. The $70,000 area warrants monitoring as potential downside support

 

Conclusion

14 May illustrated the central tension currently facing crypto markets: significant policy progress (CLARITY Act advancement, Trump-Xi summit conclusion) coexisting with institutional capital withdrawal pressure ($635 million single day ETF outflow). While traditional risk assets reached new all time highs, crypto markets failed to participate, with the primary drivers internal to the asset class - hotter than expected CPI and PPI prints, hawkish Federal Reserve expectations, and unconfirmed on chain recovery signals.

The two principal confirmation signals for subsequent direction remain: (i) whether ETF capital flows stabilize and resume positive territory, and (ii) whether on chain realized losses return to historical normal ranges. Pending confirmation on these two indicators, the market is expected to maintain range bound conditions, with key levels between $75,800 and $82,228.

Toobit, as a compliance focused digital asset trading platform, offers spot, derivatives, and risk management tools to assist investors in managing positions through volatile market conditions.