Today: Bitcoin falls below 80K after PPI shock

Bitcoin breaks below 80K as PPI shock blindsides the market

May 13 will be remembered as the day the inflation narrative finally cracked. BTC was sitting comfortably above 81,000 going into the US morning session, waiting on the April PPI print. Then 8:30 ET hit, and the number was a disaster: producer prices jumped 1.4% month over month, almost three times the 0.5% consensus. The yearly read came in at 6%, the hottest since December 2022. Bitcoin gave up the 80K handle inside minutes and traded down to an intraday low of 78,704, the lowest level since May 4. Crypto longs got carried out to the tune of 304 million dollars, with BTC alone accounting for 94 million in long liquidations. The token clawed back to around 79,300 by late afternoon, but it had still lost more than 2,000 dollars in 24 hours.

Total crypto market cap pulled back to roughly 2.79 trillion. Bitcoin's market cap slipped under 1.6 trillion. Fear and Greed dropped from 49 to 42, putting us back in fear territory for the first time this week. ETH/BTC kept bleeding and printed a fresh ten month low, with ETH down 2.76% to 2,275. WTI crude climbed 3.87% to 102 dollars, the Nasdaq closed down 0.71%, and the S&P shed just 0.16% after another textbook intraday recovery.

The bigger story is the calendar. Between May 11 and May 15, every macro variable that matters in 2026 has been crammed into the same five day window. CPI Tuesday. PPI today. The CLARITY Act markup Thursday. Trump and Xi in Beijing Thursday and Friday. Powell's last day at the Fed Friday. Today's PPI print wasn't just a one day reaction. It just rewrote the rate path for the rest of 2026.

 

What the ETF tape is actually telling us

Institutional flows finally cracked this week, and not in a subtle way.

May 12 brought net outflows of 233 million dollars across US spot Bitcoin ETFs, one of the larger single day prints in recent weeks. Six straight weeks of inflows totaling roughly 3.4 billion is still the dominant story, but the daily flip got everyone's attention.

Then May 13 added a second crack. BlackRock's IBIT broke its 20 day inflow streak, one of the cleanest institutional demand signals of the year. The full ETF complex pushed out another 96 million on the day, with Fidelity's FBTC bleeding 91 million and Hashdex DEFI losing 4.7 million. IBIT didn't go negative. It just printed a zero, which is meaningful on its own.

The more important read is in the cross asset rotation:

• BTC ETFs: -233 million on May 12

• ETH ETFs: -130 million on May 12, two straight days of outflows totaling 148 million

• SOL ETFs: +19 million on May 12, the seventh consecutive day of inflows

• XRP ETFs: +5.3 million on May 12, cumulative inflows hit a record 1.35 billion

This isn't institutions leaving crypto. It's institutions rotating inside crypto. SOL's seven day inflow run and XRP hitting a cumulative record are telling you that money is moving from the majors into specific narratives - high throughput L1s and cross border payments. Those are the two themes getting allocator interest right now.

 

The April PPI was the kind of print that breaks frameworks

If Tuesday's CPI made the market uncomfortable, Wednesday's PPI broke the "energy is just transitory" framing for good.

The April numbers came in hot across the board, and multiple sub indexes hit four year highs:

• Headline PPI MoM: +1.4% (consensus +0.5%, prior revised to +0.7%) - biggest monthly print since March 2022

• Headline PPI YoY: +6.0% (consensus +4.8%, prior revised to +4.3%) - highest reading since December 2022

• Core PPI MoM (ex food and energy): +1.0% (consensus +0.3%, prior +0.2%) - four year high

• Core PPI YoY: +5.2% (consensus +4.3%) - highest since December 2022

• Super core (ex food, energy, trade) MoM: +0.6% (YoY +4.4%) - highest since February 2023

• Final demand energy: +7.8% MoM, with gasoline up 15.6% and diesel up 12.6%

• Final demand services: +1.2% MoM, the largest jump since March 2022. Trade services margins jumped 2.7%, the largest monthly advance on record.

• Freight costs: trucking +8% MoM, air freight +3.6% MoM

Three things you have to sit with:

First, core PPI doubled month over month to +1.0%. The Iran energy shock is no longer contained to the energy bucket. It's now showing up in services, trade margins, and transportation. This is structural cost push inflation getting confirmed in the data, not in the commentary.

Second, trade services jumped 2.7%, the largest single month gain on record. That's wholesalers and retailers passing tariffs and oil cost through to consumers in real time. PPI is supposed to be the pipeline data. What this is telling you is that the pipeline is already flowing into the CPI bucket. Expect the next one or two CPI prints to keep running hot.

Third, headline PPI at +6% year over year is back in 2022 territory. The "this is transitory" framework just got cremated.

Rates markets repriced almost immediately:

• CME FedWatch: June FOMC at roughly 100% no change, odds of at least one rate hike by end of 2026 jumped to ~39%

• Polymarket and Kalshi: probability of a hike before July 2027 jumped from 43% to above 53%

• Bank of America pushed its first cut all the way out to mid to late 2027

• JPMorgan is now openly discussing a possible Q3 2027 hike

• DXY caught a 0.24% bid right on the release

The "rate cut driven liquidity story" that's been the bull case for BTC for six months is slowly being drained out of the tape.

 

Powell's countdown and Warsh on the board

Late Tuesday, the Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh to the Federal Reserve Board. BTC bounced from 79,900 to 80,400 on the headline. The market reaction wasn't about Warsh being dovish. He isn't. The bounce reflected three things:

1. Warsh has had crypto exposure in his past investments and is seen as broadly more constructive on digital assets than the average FOMC member

2. Powell's term as Fed Chair ends May 15, and Trump has repeatedly signaled Warsh as the preferred replacement

3. Warsh publicly supports tighter coordination between the Fed and Treasury on international FX policy, which lines up with Bessent's dollar dominance push

To be precise: Warsh joining the Board ≠ Warsh becoming Chair. But the market has started pre pricing the appointment. The next inflection point is whether Trump formally nominates Warsh around Powell's exit on May 15. If that happens, it adds a short term bullish drift to the crypto setup.

 

Traditional markets: oil through 100, equities V shape, gold bid

Iran flipped back into "long duration standoff" mode over the past 48 hours, and traditional markets responded accordingly.

• Trump rejected Iran's counterproposal on Truth Social on May 11, calling it "totally unacceptable"

• On May 13 the US Defense Secretary publicly said the Pentagon "has plans ready to escalate tensions with Iran if necessary"

• Project Freedom, the US naval escort operation that Trump paused on May 5, is back on the table

• WTI crude broke back through 100 to 102 dollars (+3.87%), Brent followed

• DXY climbed 0.24%

• Gold caught a fresh safe haven bid

US equities ran another V shape:

• Nasdaq down almost 2% intraday, closed -0.71%

• S&P 500 down about 1% at the lows, closed -0.16%

• Dow eked out a small gain

• 10 year Treasury yield holding around 4.39%

• VIX up over 10% on the week, around 19, up sharply from 16 last week

The mix of hot PPI, rebounding oil, stronger dollar, and a more hawkish Fed is the worst possible macro background for BTC. Holding 80K support in this environment is actually a structural win. But reclaiming the 200 day moving average at 82,000 just got materially harder.

 

Policy calendar: CLARITY, Beijing, and the Fed handoff

Three policy windows back to back over the next 72 hours.

CLARITY Act markup Thursday May 14

The Senate Banking Committee will hold its markup hearing for the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act of 2025 at 10:30 a.m. ET on May 14. This is the most important procedural moment since the House passed its version 294 to 134 in July 2025.

Where things stand:

• The new 309 page text dropped just after midnight on May 12, up from January's 278 pages

• The Tillis Alsobrooks stablecoin yield compromise is now baked in: no yield on simply holding stablecoins, rewards allowed for activity participation

• More than 100 amendments have been filed, with Senator Warren alone submitting over 40 including provisions to ban the Fed from issuing master accounts to crypto firms and an ethics package targeting Trump family business interests

• The Van Hollen ethics amendment has bipartisan support and is the one Democratic amendment with a real chance of surviving

• Banking trade groups still have objections but the markup will not be delayed further

• White House target is July 4 for presidential signing, Gillibrand is calling for early August

Three scenarios for the vote:

• 18 to 6 outcome (all five Democratic swing votes support) → strong bipartisan signal, floor passage probability rises sharply

• 16 to 8 outcome (Warner, Alsobrooks, Gallego support) → base case, advances but the 60 vote Senate floor hurdle remains tough

• 13 to 11 outcome (pure party line) → downside case, 2026 passage odds drop materially

A clean markup result is broadly bullish for compliant exchanges, major L1s, and regulated stablecoin issuers (USDC, PYUSD, RLUSD). Toobit and other compliance focused venues get clear operating room under the new framework. A delay or substantive rewrite would trigger an immediate 3 to 5% negative reaction across the stack.

Trump and Xi in Beijing, May 14 and 15

Trump arrived in Beijing Wednesday evening. This is the first visit to China by a US president since 2017. Schedule:

• May 13 (Wednesday): Bessent meets China's Vice Premier He Lifeng in Seoul to pre negotiate trade, rare earths, and chip issues

• May 14 (Thursday): bilateral talks at the Great Hall of the People, state banquet, Temple of Heaven tour

• May 15 (Friday): Zhongnanhai meetings, working lunch, departure ceremony

The US delegation is unusually heavy - Musk, Cook, Jensen Huang, BlackRock's Larry Fink, Bessent, Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, plus Eric Trump. Tech, finance, defense, and agriculture all in one room. Soybeans, Boeing aircraft, and energy exports are the headline commercial asks.

Two scenarios for the crypto tape:

• Constructive outcome (trade detente, Chinese pressure on Iran, no Taiwan escalation) → softer dollar, Asia risk on, oil premium compresses, BTC gets cover to push the 200 day moving average

• Tense outcome (tariff escalation, Taiwan or rare earth standoff) → stronger dollar, tighter liquidity, BTC tests the 76K band

There's a deeper layer. Bessent is actively negotiating dollar swap lines with Gulf and Asian allies, with the stated goal of "creating new US dollar funding centers" and "countering the growth of problematic alternative payment systems." This is the first concrete leg of the administration's dollar dominance push, and it pairs naturally with Warsh's stated preference for Fed Treasury coordination. Short term neutral for crypto. Medium term, if the dollar gets reinforced at the institutional settlement layer, BTC's non sovereign reserve narrative gets stronger by default.

May 15: Powell's last day plus the data drop

• Retail Sales and Industrial Production: the cleanest test of whether US consumer demand can still carry the soft landing thesis

• Powell's final day: watch for any closing remarks or forward guidance signals

• Warsh starts on the board: any internal commentary will move the curve

• H.4.1 Fed balance sheet data: reserves stability is the cleanest liquidity indicator

 

Industry headlines that matter

Strategy estimated to have bought another 2,110 BTC

On May 13, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is estimated to have purchased roughly 2,110 BTC, funded by proceeds from the STRC perpetual preferred stock program. This follows the 206 million dollar STRC raise on May 11 (2.12 million shares sold at near 100 dollar par).

If confirmed, Strategy's total holdings move to approximately 820,979 BTC at an average cost of 75,540 dollars.

What matters more than the buy itself is the messaging. After Saylor floated "selling some bitcoin to fund dividends" on last week's earnings call, he reversed the narrative over the weekend: "Even if we were to sell 1 bitcoin, we'd be buying 10 to 20 more." This week's 535 BTC on Monday and roughly 2,110 BTC on Wednesday is Strategy putting real capital behind that "net accumulator" identity at exactly the moment the market needed it.

The next thing to watch is the May 15 STRC ex dividend date. A small symbolic sale would get absorbed quickly. A sized sale becomes the largest supply side variable of Q2. Every signal so far points to the first scenario.

Coinbase adds SOL as loan collateral, originations cross 2.3 billion

Coinbase officially added Solana as eligible collateral for its crypto backed loan product, with qualified users able to borrow up to 100,000 dollars in USDC against SOL holdings. Max LTV is 70%. The product runs on Morpho via Base.

Coinbase's collateral matrix now includes: BTC, ETH, XRP, DOGE, ADA, LTC, cbETH, and now SOL.

Cumulative originations have crossed 2.3 billion dollars: BTC roughly 2.17 billion, ETH around 110 million, XRP 31.6 million. Coinbase is effectively building an onchain credit market using Morpho plus Base plus its own compliance rails. Every asset added to that collateral list gets a structural tailwind: holders no longer need to sell to access liquidity.

SOL traded at 95.69 on the announcement day. Solana ETFs have now logged seven consecutive days of net inflows, so spot demand and structural credit demand are converging.

JPMorgan launching its second tokenized money market fund on Ethereum

JPMorgan announced it will launch a second tokenized money market fund on Ethereum, a clear escalation of its public chain RWA strategy. Combined with DTCC expanding its collateral management system and integrating Chainlink the same day, traditional finance infrastructure is migrating onto public chains at quarterly pace.

Other project level moves worth tracking

• Grayscale filed to convert its Zcash Trust into a spot ETF: first compliant ETF progress for the privacy coin segment, ZEN +5% on the day

• Starknet launched strkBTC: privacy focused BTC asset, expands L2 BTC liquidity

• Ronin migrated to Ethereum L2: RON down 2.8% over 24 hours, market reaction muted

• VVV listed on Upbit: pumped then dumped, finishing the day -6%, with insider trading allegations against Upbit surfacing

• Cerebras going public this week at a 5.5 billion dollar valuation: AI chip company

• MRDN (x402 ecosystem) +160%: catalyzed by Circle endorsement plus AI Agent payment narrative

• APT unlock: 0.67% of circulating supply released May 13, roughly 12.4 million dollars

• May 15 unlocks: STRK 4.05% (6.8 million), SEI 0.95% (3.8 million)

 

Derivatives and sentiment: leverage is getting cleaned out

The PPI reaction tells you a few things about how the market is actually positioned.

Longs got carried out

• Total liquidations 304 million on the day, longs accounted for more than 80% ($304M longs versus $71M shorts)

• BTC alone took 94 million in long liquidations, nearly double Tuesday's 57 million

• About 71% of short term holders are still in profit (CEX.io data), the highest reading since October 2025 → distribution pressure isn't done yet

• The Coinbase Premium Gap stayed negative all session → US investors weren't willing to pay the global BTC price, meaning domestic demand was weaker than offshore

Funding rates remain "neutral to bearish"

BTC perp annualized funding briefly hit 6% on Monday but spent most of this week sitting near 0%. Professional desks aren't aggressive on either side. There's no retail FOMO either. The clean read: any sustained upside breakout will need fresh capital, not leverage.

Options flow: bullish bias plus deep tail hedges

Deribit 24 hour volume distribution:

• Calls concentrated at BTC 82K, 84K, 86K strikes

• Puts concentrated at BTC 65K, 72K, 74K strikes

This is textbook "willing to pay premium for the breakout, but also paying for deep downside insurance". Institutional positioning is constructively long short term but already hedged against a 76K break.

ETH/BTC at a ten month low

This is the most under appreciated structural print of the day. ETH's relative weakness against BTC continued on May 13, and the ETH/BTC ratio dropped to its lowest level since July 2025. Two layers:

1. On the institutional side, ETF flows are picking BTC over ETH

2. On the chain side, new stablecoin issuance and RWA activity is migrating to higher throughput L1s like Solana

ETH's short term problem isn't just CPI and PPI. It's structural share loss.

 

How to actually trade this setup

Key resistance and support map for the next 72 hours:

• Upside: psychological 80,000 → 200 day EMA at 82,000 → 61.8% Fib at 83,440 → horizontal barrier at 84,410 → channel breakout target at 88,860

• Downside: psychological 80,000 → 50% Fib at 78,960 → 100 day EMA at 76,650 → 50 day EMA at 76,250 → channel top at 75,680

• Tom Lee's bull market line: 76,000. A monthly close below would, in his framing, confirm the end of the bull cycle

Three scenarios:

1. Bullish: clean CLARITY markup pass on May 14 + constructive Trump–Xi outcome + oil pulls back → BTC reclaims 82,500 → target 85K to 88K

2. Neutral: markup passes + summit produces no major breakthrough + oil stays elevated → BTC ranges between 78K and 83K → market waits for the May 28 FOMC minutes

3. Bearish: markup gets delayed or substantially rewritten + tariff or Taiwan friction in Beijing + Iran deteriorates further → BTC breaks 78,500 → tests 75K to 76K → losing 76K confirms Tom Lee's bear signal

If you're trading the 76K to 85K range this week, Toobit's spot, futures, and risk management tools are built for exactly this kind of macro density. This is not a week to chase any direction. This is a week to manage size, wait for the prints, and let the market confirm direction before you scale up.

 

Alpha watch

Implied vol is suspiciously compressed

BTC 30 day implied volatility (BVIV) is sitting near 40%, and it didn't spike on the combination of hot PPI, escalating Iran threats, and Powell's exit being three days away. Two readings are possible. Either the market has already priced in every event (unlikely given today's PPI surprise), or option dealers are sitting neutral and waiting for events to actually land before they reprice. The second case means any real breakout will come with a clean volatility expansion.

OI up, volume down

Crypto futures notional open interest climbed to 125 billion dollars while volumes fell 6%. OI rising with volume falling = positioning is settling, not speculating. This is the cleanest microstructure signal of the week. Market makers, CTAs, and institutional desks are sizing into the move rather than day trading it. That's usually the "quiet phase" before a trending move.

Stablecoin market cap overtakes Ether for the first time in 2026

This is the underappreciated structural print of the day. Stablecoins now represent 11.5% of total crypto market cap, ahead of Ether's 11.4%. Two drivers:

1. Stablecoins keep expanding in payments, cross border settlement, and DeFi collateral

2. Ether is losing share to both BTC (institutional side) and competing L1s like Solana (chain side)

Short term not great for ETH. Long term structurally bullish for USDC, USDT, and the new wave of compliant issuers including RLUSD, USDPT, and PYUSD.

Bessent's dollar swap line strategy

Treasury Secretary Bessent is actively negotiating dollar swap lines with Gulf and Asian allies. The stated goal, in his own words, is to "create new US dollar funding centers" and "counter the growth of problematic alternative payment systems." This is the first concrete leg of the Trump administration's dollar dominance strategy, and it pairs naturally with Warsh's preference for Fed Treasury coordination.

Short term neutral for crypto. Medium to long term, if the dollar gets reinforced at the institutional settlement layer, BTC's non sovereign reserve narrative gets stronger by default. This is a slow moving variable, but it's worth front running for the back half of 2026.

 

Bottom line

May 13 was the most concentrated trading day of 2026 so far. PPI confirmed the spread of the energy shock into core inflation, Powell's clock is at 48 hours, the Iran situation is back in escalation mode, and the CLARITY markup and Trump and Xi summit both land inside a 24 hour window. BTC lost 80K intraday but didn't break, ETF flows started rotating from majors into SOL and XRP, and Strategy stayed in 2,000+ BTC accumulation mode. Those three lines together tell you the crypto market is still in a stress test phase, but a structural exit isn't happening yet.

The real question isn't whether BTC can break 85K. The real question is whether BTC defends the 78K to 80K support band. A clean CLARITY pass and constructive Beijing summit signals open up a path back to 82,500 to 85,000. If either event goes the wrong way, a test of 76K to 78K becomes hard to avoid.

The rest of this week calls for discipline, not predictions. Wait for the data, the markup, and the summit. Let the first clean candle after those events land tell you the direction. This cycle doesn't reward people who chase. It rewards people who pace themselves. Toobit's toolkit is built for exactly this kind of volatility regime.