十一月上半月的市場行為呈現出明顯的分歧。比特幣（BTC）承受了政治不確定性的全部影響，而Stellar Lumens（XLM）和狗狗幣（DOGE）則悄然受益於實際採用的成功。結果是市場格局中，情緒、政策風險和實用性將主要資產拉向非常不同的方向。
以下是影響每個價格趨勢的因素及為何這些敘述在未來很重要的分析。
比特幣失去動力，因政治信心減弱
11月14日至16日之間最大的政策發展是美國政府關門結束，這一狀況已持續了43天。然而，市場反應卻出乎意料，很快成為頭條新聞。
BTC跌至六個月來的最低水平，交易者的訊息很明確。在政策局勢穩定之前，謹慎仍然是主流。
臨時協議創造了長期不確定性
包括美國證券交易委員會（SEC）在內的機構重新開放，被廣泛視為信心的提振。加密貨幣交易所交易基金（ETF）申請的積壓和如清晰法案等框架的進展技術上重新啟動。然而，分析師報告稱，對高風險資產的短期需求立即下降。
問題不在於重新開放本身，而在於協議僅資助政府運行至2026年1月。
由於沒有永久解決方案，新聞媒體強調核心分歧仍未解決。這提高了再次關門的風險，並引發了一波風險規避，將BTC價格拖至六個月來的最低水平。
市場分歧變得明顯
當BTC下滑時，傳統股票保持相對穩定。這種不尋常的分歧表明政治風險直接影響比特幣，顯示出BTC對美國政策不確定性的敏感性。
Stellar受益於現實世界的採用，儘管有噪音
Stellar成功避開了圍繞BTC的大部分宏觀動盪。
十一月在真實金融基礎設施方面取得了實質性進展，這種實用性幫助XLM幣價比許多人預期的更穩定。
Visa的全球支付試點推動XLM興趣上升
在更廣泛的市場波動之前，一個重大里程碑剛剛達成。Visa確認了一個基於Stellar網絡的全球商業對商業穩定幣支付試點。由於該計劃旨在滿足GENIUS法案下的合規要求，它作為一個強烈的信號，表明受監管機構將Stellar視為可信的結算層。
為何Stellar保持穩定
Stellar的長期敘述基於支付和結算效率，而非投機性動力。其在政治壓力期間被主要參與者持續採用，驗證了其設計為安全、快速和可靠的支付軌道。因此，XLM被視為一種支付技術資產，而非高貝塔代幣，幫助其在最近的波動中保持穩定。
狗狗幣以平靜的價格行為令人驚訝
由於其模因幣的起源，狗狗幣通常被認為是反應性和情緒驅動的。然而，當BTC承受政策衝擊的主要影響時，DOGE在最近的市場下跌中表現出意外的韌性，成為市場上最穩定的名字之一。
微軟整合和ETF申請穩定了DOGE價格
兩項發展有助於穩定情緒：
-
首先，微軟啟用了狗狗幣支付，用於選定的服務，給予DOGE在主流商業中的合法立足點。
-
其次，隨著多個狗狗幣ETF申請的進展，機構興趣持續上升。
這些舉措共同幫助DOGE從社交媒體幣轉變為成熟的支付品牌。這種轉變很重要，因為它創造了一個基於使用而非炒作的價格底線。
為何狗狗幣保持冷靜
DOGE在政治驅動的修正期間的韌性顯示其作為支付品牌的市場身份正在穩固。
當資產在宏觀頭條新聞加劇時穩定下來，這表明存在更結構化的需求。DOGE的敘述不再以模因為中心。這種轉變逐漸降低了狗狗幣價格相對於更廣泛市場的風險。
接下來要關注什麼
十一月上半月顯示出宏觀政策和實際採用可以將主要資產推向不同的方向。
-
BTC現在緊密關聯於美國政治穩定的節奏。
-
XLM繼續受到企業整合的影響。
-
DOGE正在演變為一個實用的支付品牌，並且機構興趣正在浮現。
隨著監管活動的恢復和下一個資金截止日期的臨近，這些動態將繼續定義市場中的價格行為。
如何在Toobit上購買加密貨幣
要在Toobit上購買加密貨幣，創建一個帳戶，完成驗證，然後前往購買加密貨幣。選擇一個代幣，選擇支付方式，並確認購買。一旦交易結算，您的資產將顯示在現貨帳戶中。
恭喜，您現在知道如何在Toobit上購買加密貨幣了！
'%3e%3cpath%20d='M22.8509%2022.6654L17.4903%2014.8769L16.8842%2013.996L13.0487%208.42461L12.7309%207.96289H8.01855L9.16772%209.63304L14.2668%2017.0416L14.8729%2017.9215L18.97%2023.8748L19.2877%2024.3361H24.0001L22.8509%2022.6654ZM19.8474%2023.2697L15.5912%2017.0853L14.9851%2016.2049L10.0462%209.02882H12.1708L16.1651%2014.832L16.7712%2015.7124L21.9725%2023.2694L19.8474%2023.2697Z'%20fill='white'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M14.9853%2016.208L15.5914%2017.0883L14.8728%2017.9246L9.35955%2024.3387H8L14.2667%2017.0447L14.9853%2016.208Z'%20fill='white'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M23.4366%207.96289L17.4936%2014.8769L16.775%2015.7126L16.1689%2014.8323L16.8875%2013.996L20.9132%209.31032L22.0771%207.96289H23.4366Z'%20fill='white'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3cdefs%3e%3cclipPath%20id='clip0_563_5664'%3e%3crect%20width='16'%20height='16.3727'%20fill='white'%20transform='translate(8%208)'/%3e%3c/clipPath%3e%3c/defs%3e%3c/svg%3e){kind=small}
'%3e%3cpath%20d='M16%2032C24.8365%2032%2031.9999%2024.8365%2031.9999%2016C31.9999%207.16343%2024.8365%200%2016%200C7.16342%200%200%207.16343%200%2016C0%2024.8365%207.16342%2032%2016%2032Z'%20fill='%233F4249'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M17.7157%2015.9816C17.7157%2020.5318%2014.052%2024.2206%209.5328%2024.2206C5.01361%2024.2206%201.34961%2020.5318%201.34961%2015.9816C1.34961%2011.4312%205.01333%207.74219%209.5328%207.74219C14.0522%207.74219%2017.7157%2011.4312%2017.7157%2015.9816Z'%20fill='white'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M26.6929%2015.9833C26.6929%2020.2664%2024.8611%2023.74%2022.6014%2023.74C20.3416%2023.74%2018.5098%2020.2664%2018.5098%2015.9833C18.5098%2011.7001%2020.3414%208.22656%2022.6011%208.22656C24.8608%208.22656%2026.6927%2011.699%2026.6927%2015.9833'%20fill='white'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M30.3642%2015.9879C30.3642%2019.8245%2029.7201%2022.9366%2028.9251%2022.9366C28.1303%2022.9366%2027.4863%2019.8253%2027.4863%2015.9879C27.4863%2012.1504%2028.1306%209.03906%2028.9251%209.03906C29.7197%209.03906%2030.3642%2012.1501%2030.3642%2015.9879Z'%20fill='white'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3cdefs%3e%3cclipPath%20id='clip0_563_5676'%3e%3crect%20width='31.9999'%20height='31.9999'%20fill='white'/%3e%3c/clipPath%3e%3c/defs%3e%3c/svg%3e){kind=small}
'%3e%3cpath%20d='M16%200C7.15813%200%200%207.15814%200%2016C0%2024.8418%207.15813%2031.9999%2016%2031.9999C24.8418%2031.9999%2031.9999%2024.8418%2031.9999%2016C32.0184%207.15814%2024.8418%200%2016%200Z'%20fill='%233F4249'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M13.6334%2019.5441L19.6173%2016.0242L13.6334%2012.5214V19.5429V19.5441ZM24.9675%2019.1737C24.9675%2022.2014%2021.9398%2022.2014%2021.9398%2022.2014H10.4124C7.38477%2022.2014%207.38477%2019.1737%207.38477%2019.1737V12.8722C7.38477%209.8457%2010.4124%209.8457%2010.4124%209.8457H21.9398C24.9675%209.8457%2024.9675%2012.8734%2024.9675%2012.8734V19.1737Z'%20fill='white'%20fill-opacity='0.9'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3cdefs%3e%3cclipPath%20id='clip0_563_5672'%3e%3crect%20width='31.9999'%20height='31.9999'%20fill='white'/%3e%3c/clipPath%3e%3c/defs%3e%3c/svg%3e){kind=small}
'%3e%3cpath%20d='M15.9999%200C7.15787%200%200%207.15788%200%2016C0%2024.8421%207.15787%2031.9999%2015.9999%2031.9999C24.842%2031.9999%2031.9999%2024.8421%2031.9999%2016C32.0182%207.15788%2024.842%200%2015.9999%200Z'%20fill='%233F4249'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M22.8498%209.8626C22.8443%209.85216%2022.8352%209.84398%2022.8242%209.83952C21.5474%209.26288%2020.2001%208.85169%2018.8159%208.61625C18.7901%208.61153%2018.7641%208.62362%2018.7515%208.64625C18.568%208.97403%2018.4015%209.31073%2018.2525%209.65504C16.7603%209.43208%2015.2426%209.43208%2013.7505%209.65504C13.6005%209.30985%2013.4313%208.97308%2013.2436%208.64625C13.2304%208.62416%2013.2049%208.61226%2013.1792%208.61625C11.7948%208.8512%2010.4474%209.26242%209.17078%209.83956C9.15985%209.84412%209.15063%209.8519%209.14439%209.86184C6.59146%2013.6147%205.89211%2017.2754%206.23519%2020.8907C6.23714%2020.9086%206.24638%2020.9249%206.26081%2020.936C7.74736%2022.0195%209.41008%2022.8465%2011.178%2023.3818C11.2035%2023.3893%2011.2311%2023.3804%2011.2471%2023.3595C11.6268%2022.8509%2011.9633%2022.3124%2012.2531%2021.7493C12.2611%2021.7337%2012.262%2021.7154%2012.2555%2021.6991C12.249%2021.6828%2012.2357%2021.67%2012.2189%2021.664C11.6884%2021.4642%2011.1747%2021.2233%2010.6828%2020.9436C10.6647%2020.9331%2010.653%2020.9144%2010.6518%2020.8937C10.6505%2020.873%2010.6598%2020.8531%2010.6766%2020.8405C10.7801%2020.7644%2010.8818%2020.686%2010.9817%2020.6052C10.9995%2020.5908%2011.0242%2020.5875%2011.0453%2020.5968C14.268%2022.0446%2017.7571%2022.0446%2020.9417%2020.5968C20.9629%2020.5869%2020.988%2020.5899%2021.0061%2020.6045C21.1061%2020.6856%2021.2081%2020.7643%2021.312%2020.8405C21.3288%2020.8529%2021.3383%2020.8728%2021.3372%2020.8935C21.3361%2020.9142%2021.3246%2020.933%2021.3065%2020.9436C20.8157%2021.2256%2020.3016%2021.4664%2019.7697%2021.6633C19.753%2021.6695%2019.7398%2021.6825%2019.7334%2021.6989C19.727%2021.7154%2019.728%2021.7337%2019.7362%2021.7493C20.0308%2022.3092%2020.3668%2022.8471%2020.7414%2023.3586C20.757%2023.3801%2020.7848%2023.3894%2020.8105%2023.3817C22.5816%2022.8482%2024.2472%2022.0211%2025.7356%2020.936C25.7503%2020.9255%2025.7596%2020.9092%2025.7612%2020.8914C26.172%2016.7118%2025.0736%2013.0811%2022.8498%209.8626ZM12.7344%2018.6893C11.7641%2018.6893%2010.9646%2017.8128%2010.9646%2016.7364C10.9646%2015.66%2011.7486%2014.7834%2012.7344%2014.7834C13.7278%2014.7834%2014.5196%2015.6676%2014.5041%2016.7363C14.5041%2017.8128%2013.7201%2018.6893%2012.7344%2018.6893ZM19.2777%2018.6893C18.3075%2018.6893%2017.508%2017.8128%2017.508%2016.7364C17.508%2015.66%2018.2919%2014.7834%2019.2777%2014.7834C20.2713%2014.7834%2021.063%2015.6676%2021.0475%2016.7363C21.0475%2017.8128%2020.2713%2018.6893%2019.2777%2018.6893Z'%20fill='white'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3cdefs%3e%3cclipPath%20id='clip0_563_5687'%3e%3crect%20width='31.9999'%20height='31.9999'%20fill='white'/%3e%3c/clipPath%3e%3c/defs%3e%3c/svg%3e){kind=small}
'%3e%3cpath%20d='M16%2032C24.8365%2032%2032%2024.8365%2032%2016C32%207.16342%2024.8365%200%2016%200C7.16342%200%200%207.16342%200%2016C0%2024.8365%207.16342%2032%2016%2032Z'%20fill='%233F4249'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M26.6981%2016.0342C26.6981%2014.743%2025.6503%2013.695%2024.3589%2013.695C23.7227%2013.695%2023.1613%2013.9383%2022.7496%2014.35C21.1589%2013.2085%2018.9508%2012.4599%2016.518%2012.3664L17.5847%207.36988L21.0467%208.09969C21.0841%208.97925%2021.8139%209.69037%2022.7121%209.69037C23.6292%209.69037%2024.3777%208.94181%2024.3777%208.02488C24.3777%207.10788%2023.6292%206.35938%2022.7121%206.35938C22.0572%206.35938%2021.4957%206.73363%2021.2339%207.295L17.3602%206.47163C17.2479%206.45295%2017.1356%206.47163%2017.042%206.52775C16.9486%206.58395%2016.8923%206.67751%2016.8548%206.78975L15.6759%2012.3664C13.1871%2012.4412%2010.9602%2013.1711%209.35084%2014.35C8.93915%2013.957%208.35903%2013.695%207.74146%2013.695C6.45027%2013.695%205.40234%2014.743%205.40234%2016.0342C5.40234%2016.9886%205.96372%2017.7932%206.78709%2018.1675C6.74965%2018.3922%206.73097%2018.6354%206.73097%2018.8786C6.73097%2022.4716%2010.9041%2025.3722%2016.069%2025.3722C21.2339%2025.3722%2025.4069%2022.4716%2025.4069%2018.8786C25.4069%2018.6354%2025.3883%2018.4108%2025.3508%2018.1863C26.118%2017.812%2026.6981%2016.9886%2026.6981%2016.0342ZM10.6982%2017.6996C10.6982%2016.7827%2011.4468%2016.0342%2012.3637%2016.0342C13.2806%2016.0342%2014.0292%2016.7827%2014.0292%2017.6996C14.0292%2018.6167%2013.2806%2019.3652%2012.3637%2019.3652C11.4468%2019.3652%2010.6982%2018.6167%2010.6982%2017.6996ZM19.9987%2022.0974C18.8572%2023.2388%2016.6866%2023.3138%2016.0503%2023.3138C15.414%2023.3138%2013.2245%2023.2202%2012.1017%2022.0974C11.9333%2021.929%2011.9333%2021.6482%2012.1017%2021.4798C12.2701%2021.3114%2012.5508%2021.3114%2012.7193%2021.4798C13.4304%2022.191%2014.9648%2022.453%2016.069%2022.453C17.1731%2022.453%2018.6888%2022.191%2019.4187%2021.4798C19.5871%2021.3114%2019.8677%2021.3114%2020.0361%2021.4798C20.1672%2021.667%2020.1672%2021.929%2019.9987%2022.0974ZM19.6993%2019.3652C18.7824%2019.3652%2018.0339%2018.6167%2018.0339%2017.6996C18.0339%2016.7827%2018.7824%2016.0342%2019.6993%2016.0342C20.6163%2016.0342%2021.3648%2016.7827%2021.3648%2017.6996C21.3648%2018.6167%2020.6163%2019.3652%2019.6993%2019.3652Z'%20fill='white'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3cdefs%3e%3cclipPath%20id='clip0_563_5697'%3e%3crect%20width='32'%20height='32'%20fill='white'/%3e%3c/clipPath%3e%3c/defs%3e%3c/svg%3e){kind=small}
'%3e%3cpath%20d='M0%2015.9877C0%2024.8172%207.15813%2031.9753%2015.9876%2031.9753C24.8172%2031.9753%2031.9753%2024.8172%2031.9753%2015.9877C31.9753%207.15814%2024.8172%200%2015.9876%200C7.15813%200%200%207.15814%200%2015.9877Z'%20fill='%233F4249'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M13.2026%2010.0484V12.7303H11.2383V16.009H13.2026V25.7518H17.2383V16.009H19.946C19.946%2016.009%2020.1995%2014.4361%2020.3213%2012.7179H17.253V10.4755C17.253%2010.1407%2017.6924%209.69026%2018.1269%209.69026H20.3263V6.27734H17.3367C13.1029%206.27734%2013.2026%209.55857%2013.2026%2010.0484Z'%20fill='white'%20fill-opacity='0.9'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3cdefs%3e%3cclipPath%20id='clip0_563_5683'%3e%3crect%20width='31.9999'%20height='31.9999'%20fill='white'/%3e%3c/clipPath%3e%3c/defs%3e%3c/svg%3e){kind=small}
'%3e%3cpath%20d='M26.6665%206.66699H6.6665V25.3336H26.6665V6.66699Z'%20fill='white'/%3e%3cpath%20fill-rule='evenodd'%20clip-rule='evenodd'%20d='M24.9797%2023.5397V17.2933C24.9797%2013.9466%2023.193%2012.3893%2020.8111%2012.3893C18.889%2012.3893%2018.0277%2013.4469%2017.5477%2014.1888V12.6453H13.9264C13.9744%2013.6677%2013.9264%2023.5397%2013.9264%2023.5397H17.5477V17.4554C17.5477%2017.1306%2017.5712%2016.8053%2017.6672%2016.5728C17.9285%2015.9221%2018.5242%2015.2485%2019.5242%2015.2485C20.8351%2015.2485%2021.3589%2016.2474%2021.3589%2017.7114V23.5402H24.9797V23.5397ZM10.1114%2011.1584C11.3738%2011.1584%2012.1605%2010.3211%2012.1605%209.27519C12.137%208.20692%2011.3738%207.39359%2010.1354%207.39359C8.89704%207.39359%208.08691%208.20639%208.08691%209.27519C8.08691%2010.3211%208.87304%2011.1584%2010.0885%2011.1584H10.1114ZM16%2032C7.16371%2032%200%2024.8362%200%2016C0%207.16319%207.16371%200%2016%200C24.8362%200%2031.9999%207.16319%2031.9999%2016C31.9999%2024.8362%2024.8362%2032%2016%2032ZM11.9221%2023.5397V12.6453H8.30131V23.5397H11.9221Z'%20fill='%233F4249'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3cdefs%3e%3cclipPath%20id='clip0_563_5682'%3e%3crect%20width='31.9999'%20height='31.9999'%20fill='white'/%3e%3c/clipPath%3e%3c/defs%3e%3c/svg%3e){kind=small}