Today: AI moves shake markets

Traditional markets

• The Dow Jones rose 1.43%
• The Nasdaq gained 0.67%
• The S&P 500 added 0.91%.

Macro policy updates

• Russia and Ukraine: President Zelensky noted that talks with the United States on a peace framework continue, even after reports emerged on provisional agreement terms.
  
  
• Federal Reserve: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed that the Federal Reserve chair selection has moved into its second and final interview round, with five strong candidates under consideration.
  
  
• U.S. political landscape: President Trump, despite not appearing on the midterm ballot, has taken unprecedented, early control of the Republican strategy for the 2026 elections. His heavy involvement includes making an unusually large number of early endorsements and personally urging candidates to run for or stay in specific races to minimize primary fights. The campaign is focused on the economy, centered on promoting recent tax cuts and addressing persistent voter frustration over inflation and the high cost of living.

• Alibaba stated it will increase AI investments beyond its previously committed 380B RMB, citing overwhelming demand and tightening supply. The company does not expect an AI bubble within the next three years.
  
  
• Meanwhile, xAI revealed details of Grok 5, a 60 trillion parameter multimodal model targeting a 2026 release, which aims to compete against top human League of Legends teams using human level reaction constraints.
  
  

Industry highlights

Alpha watch

Speculative flows and emerging trends accelerated across ecosystems.

 

Renaiss Protocol released its Da Vinci 3.0 Pokémon card pack during Closed Beta, containing PSA graded TCG cards. The pack sold out in under 90 minutes, including a PSA 10 M2 Mega Charizard worth nearly $1000.

 

Prediction markets recorded $2.45B in weekly notional volume, broken down as:

• Polymarket: $986.58M
• Opinion Labs: $818.30M
• Kalshi: $607.97M
• Others: $35.83M

 

Opinion Labs is now the second largest prediction market by volume.

 

On a side note, Galaxy Digital is in talks with major prediction market platforms to provide liquidity as retail participation expands and institutional interest grows.

 

WLFI buys SPSC: WLFI announced its purchase of Solana ecosystem meme token SPSC, which surged 43% intraday and 139.80% over 24 hours, lifting its market cap to $7.71M.

 

Polymarket secured approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to offer regulated services to U.S. retail users.

 

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Concluding note